尿素早评20250911:现货走低，关注后市逢低做多机会-20250911

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - Although the current urea price is fluctuating downward due to strong supply and weak demand, from the perspectives of valuation and drivers, it is recommended to focus on the opportunity to go long on dips in the future. The current urea price is oscillating at a low level, and the upstream profit is also at a relatively low level, so the urea valuation is not expensive. There are two possible upward drivers for the urea price in the second half of the year: on the supply side, there is an expectation of renovation of old facilities, and on the demand side, there is an expectation of improved exports. Therefore, it is suggested to focus on the opportunity to go long on dips in the 01 contract [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Price Changes - Futures Prices: The UR01 contract in Shandong decreased by 14 yuan/ton (-0.83%) to 1669 yuan/ton, UR05 decreased by 14 yuan/ton (-0.81%) to 1719 yuan/ton, and UR09 decreased by 11 yuan/ton (-0.68%) to 1613 yuan/ton [1]. - Domestic Spot Prices: The domestic small - particle urea prices in Henan decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.60%) to 1670 yuan/ton, in Northeast China decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.59%) to 1680 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu decreased by 20 yuan/ton (-1.20%) to 1650 yuan/ton. The price in Hebei remained unchanged [1]. 2. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR increased by 14 yuan/ton to - 49 yuan/ton, and the spread of 01 - 05 remained unchanged at - 50 yuan/ton [1]. 3. Upstream and Downstream Costs and Prices - Upstream Costs: The anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 900 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Downstream Prices: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan, and the prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu all remained unchanged [1]. 4. Important Information - The previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1681 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1692 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1668 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1669 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1679 yuan/ton, and the position was 283349 lots [1]. 5. Trading Strategy - Focus on the opportunity to go long on dips in the 01 contract [1].