光大期货能化商品日报-20250911

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall energy and chemical market is in a state of shock. The oil price is affected by geopolitical risks and inventory data, and it is expected to fluctuate. The fundamentals of fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and PVC also have different influencing factors, and their prices are expected to show different trends of shock [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Crude Oil: On Wednesday, the oil price center moved up. The WTI October contract closed up $1.04 to $63.67 per barrel, a 1.66% increase. The Brent November contract closed up $1.10 to $67.49 per barrel, also a 1.66% increase. SC2510 closed at 490.1 yuan per barrel, up 4.0 yuan per barrel, a 0.82% increase. The market is pricing in the increase in geopolitical risks, and the oil price is expected to fluctuate [1]. - Fuel Oil: On Wednesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2510 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed up 1.44% at 2,827 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2511 closed up 0.48% at 3,383 yuan per ton. The supply in the Singapore area has increased recently. The fundamentals of FU and LU have no obvious driving force, and in the short term, attention should be paid to the fluctuations of the cost - side crude oil [2]. - Asphalt: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract BU2510 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed up 0.55% at 3,463 yuan per ton. It is expected that the supply - demand contradiction will ease in September, and the asphalt price may have further upward space [2]. - Polyester: TA601 closed at 4,698 yuan per ton, up 0.43%. EG2601 closed at 4,319 yuan per ton, down 0.07%. It is expected that the PX price will fluctuate with the cost, the TA fundamentals have improvement expectations, and ethylene glycol is expected to fluctuate weakly [2][4]. - Rubber: On Wednesday, the main沪胶 contract RU2601 rose 40 yuan per ton to 15,980 yuan per ton. It is expected that the rubber price will be mainly in a strong - side shock, and close attention should be paid to the weather conditions in the production areas during the peak production season [4]. - Methanol: On Wednesday, the spot price in Taicang was 2,295 yuan per ton. It is expected that the methanol price will enter a stage - bottom [4][5]. - Polyolefins: On Wednesday, the mainstream price of East China wire - drawing was 6,750 - 6,960 yuan per ton. The polyolefins are gradually transitioning to a situation of both strong supply and demand, and the overall will show a weakly - fluctuating pattern [5]. - Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC): On Wednesday, the PVC market in East China was in a shock - finishing state. It is expected that the PVC price will fluctuate weakly [5][6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical varieties on September 11, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [7]. 3.3 Market News - Trump urged the EU to impose up to 100% "secondary tariffs" on China and encouraged similar measures against India. The EU official delegation will visit Washington this week to discuss joint actions to pressure Russia [11]. - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said that as of the week ending September 5, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.9 million barrels to 424.6 million barrels, and U.S. crude oil exports decreased by 1.1 million barrels per day to 2.8 million barrels per day [11]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - 4.1 Main Contract Prices: The report provides the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [13][15][17]. - 4.2 Main Contract Basis: The report provides the basis charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [26][28][32]. - 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy and chemical varieties, such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [41][43][46]. - 4.4 Inter - variety Spreads: The report provides the spread charts of inter - variety contracts of various energy and chemical varieties, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [59][62]. - 4.5 Production Profits: The report provides the production profit charts of various energy and chemical varieties, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol cash flow, PP production profit, etc. [67][69]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the Guangda Futures Energy and Chemical Research Team, including Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, and their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [72][73][74].