中国期货每日简报-20250911

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On September 10, equity indices showed mixed performance, CGB futures fell, and energy and chemical futures edged up, with lithium carbonate and polysilicon leading the declines [11][13]. - Trump stated that he is willing to impose substantial tariff hikes on China and India to force Russian President Putin to negotiate with Ukraine [4][40]. - In August 2025, CPI dropped by 0.4% year - on - year, and PPI dropped by 2.9% year - on - year with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared with the previous month [40]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - On September 10, in China's commodity futures, the top three gainers were silicon metal (up 1.6% with open interest down 2.8% month - on - month), LPG (up 1.1% with open interest up 5.8% month - on - month), and fuel oil (up 1.1% with open interest down 2.1% month - on - month). The top three decliners were lithium carbonate (down 4.9% with open interest down 3.0% month - on - month), poly - silicon (down 4.4% with open interest down 4.1% month - on - month), and RBD palm olein (down 2.4% with open interest down 1.5% month - on - month) [11][12][13]. - In China's financial futures, IH and IF rose, while IC and IM declined. For CGB Futures, the short - end saw a smaller drop, the long - end a larger drop, with TL falling by 0.9% [12][13]. 3.1.2 Daily Raise - Crude Oil - On September 10, crude oil increased by 0.6% to 486.2 yuan/barrel. Geopolitical factors continued to disrupt oil prices, but the rebound was lackluster. Israel's attack on Qatar caused disturbances, U.S. crude oil, gasoline, and diesel inventories accumulated last week, and OPEC+ decided to launch a new round of production increases in October [17][18][19]. 3.1.3 Daily Drop 3.1.3.1 Poly - Silicon - On September 10, poly - silicon decreased by 4.4% to 52885 yuan/ton. The correction was due to sentiment and capital - side adjustments. Market sentiment was high last week due to "anti - involution" policy expectations but returned to rationality as no clear plan was released. Some long - position holders closed positions as prices hit a new high [25][28][29]. - Fundamentally, poly - silicon output rebounded in August and was expected to remain high in September, then may decline due to industry self - regulation. Demand was resilient with marginal support from downstream production increases. The price trend depends on policy drivers [26][28][29]. - Starting from September 11, 2025, the trading fee standard for PS2511 contract and the intraday close - out trading fee standard were adjusted to 0.015% of the transaction amount [28][29]. 3.1.3.2 Lithium Carbonate - On September 10, lithium carbonate decreased by 4.9% to 70720 yuan/ton. Forward surplus and supply recovery expectations weighed on prices. There were still potential bullish factors, but prices may decline gradually in the future [34][37]. - A report said CATL's subsidiary planned to restart the Jianxiawo lithium mine, which may push prices below 70,000 yuan/ton. Fundamentally, there was a supply - demand gap but smaller than expected. Supply was increasing, and demand was expected to rise in September [35][36][37]. 3.2 China News - Macro News - Trump said he was willing to impose substantial tariff hikes on China and India to force Putin to negotiate with Ukraine, but only if the EU did the same. China firmly opposed such actions [40]. - In August 2025, CPI dropped by 0.4% year - on - year (0.3% in urban areas, 0.6% in rural areas), with food prices down 4.3% and non - food prices up 0.5%. PPI dropped by 2.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared with the previous month, and it turned from a 0.2% month - on - month decrease to flat [40].