申银万国期货早间策略-20250911

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The U.S. three major indices showed mixed performance. The previous trading day saw the stock index rebound with oscillations, with the communication sector leading the gains and the power equipment sector leading the losses. The market turnover was 2.00 trillion yuan. On September 9, the margin trading balance increased by 5952 million yuan to 2303.495 billion yuan. In 2025, domestic liquidity is expected to remain loose, and it is in a policy window period. In the fourth quarter, more incremental policies may be introduced to boost the real economy, and external risks are gradually easing. The increasing probability of the Fed's interest - rate cut in September further enhances the attractiveness of RMB assets. The current market is in a resonance period of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom", but one needs to adapt to the accelerating sector rotation and structural differentiation. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, which are mostly composed of technology - growth stocks, are more offensive, with larger fluctuations but potentially higher returns. The SSE 50 and CSI 300, which are mostly composed of dividend blue - chip stocks, are more defensive, with smaller fluctuations but relatively weaker price elasticity. Since July, the stock index has continued to rise with a large increase, and it may undergo shock consolidation in the short term, but the probability of a long - term market continuation is high [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - IF Contracts: The previous two - day closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 4426.20, 4419.20, 4399.60, and 4379.20 respectively, and the previous day's closing prices were 4432.40, 4422.80, 4400.60, and 4378.20 respectively. The price increases were 11.60, 10.00, 7.40, and 4.60 respectively, and the corresponding increases in the CSI 300 were 0.26, 0.23, 0.17, and 0.11. The trading volumes were 76988.00, 6115.00, 38360.00, and 9217.00 respectively, and the open interest was 113485.00, 15085.00, 106452.00, and 40453.00 respectively. The changes in open interest were 944.00, 828.00, 4011.00, and 1524.00 respectively [1] - IH Contracts: The previous two - day closing prices of IH contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 2925.40, 2925.80, 2924.80, and 2926.60 respectively, and the previous day's closing prices were 2937.80, 2936.20, 2936.80, and 2939.80 respectively. The price increases were 15.80, 14.60, 15.00, and 16.60 respectively, and the corresponding increases in the SSE 50 were 0.54, 0.50, 0.51, and 0.57. The trading volumes were 33015.00, 2270.00, 14970.00, and 2994.00 respectively, and the open interest was 48255.00, 5673.00, 32649.00, and 9310.00 respectively. The changes in open interest were - 159.00, - 802.00, 623.00, and 245.00 respectively [1] - IC Contracts: The previous two - day closing prices of IC contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 6872.80, 6813.60, 6696.40, and 6550.00 respectively, and the previous day's closing prices were 6863.40, 6803.00, 6682.80, and 6531.20 respectively. The price decreases were 3.40, 5.00, 9.20, and 15.20 respectively, and the corresponding decreases in the CSI 500 were 0.05, 0.07, 0.14, and 0.23. The trading volumes were 75803.00, 7440.00, 39131.00, and 12223.00 respectively, and the open interest was 105294.00, 15435.00, 88732.00, and 37927.00 respectively. The changes in open interest were 1013.00, 556.00, 801.00, and - 638.00 respectively [1] - IM Contracts: The previous two - day closing prices of IM contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 7165.80, 7100.60, 6956.40, and 6776.80 respectively, and the previous day's closing prices were 7151.00, 7088.60, 6938.20, and 6750.00 respectively. The price decreases were 2.40, 3.80, 10.60, and 19.80 respectively, and the corresponding decreases in the CSI 1000 were 0.03, 0.05, 0.15, and 0.29. The trading volumes were 161976.00, 14887.00, 74810.00, and 23421.00 respectively, and the open interest was 154502.00, 30109.00, 132535.00, and 66557.00 respectively. The changes in open interest were - 826.00, 1901.00, 1429.00, and 539.00 respectively [1] - Inter - month Spreads: The current values of the inter - month spreads of IF (next month - current month), IH (next month - current month), IC (next month - current month), and IM (next month - current month) were - 9.60, - 1.60, - 60.40, and - 62.40 respectively, and the previous values were - 7.00, 0.40, - 59.20, and - 65.20 respectively [1] 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - Major Indexes: The previous values of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes were 4445.36, 2939.59, 6932.11, and 7230.17 respectively, and the previous two - day values were 4436.26, 2928.63, 6928.97, and 7226.03 respectively. The increases were 0.21, 0.37, 0.05, and 0.06 respectively. The trading volumes (in billions of lots) were 203.60, 56.40, 189.92, and 252.67 respectively, and the total trading amounts (in billions of yuan) were 5355.39, 1338.02, 3596.67, and 3961.05 respectively [1] - Industry Indexes: Among the CSI 300 industry indexes, the energy, raw materials, industrial, and optional consumption sectors had decreases of - 0.47%, - 1.21%, - 0.88%, and - 0.61% respectively. The major consumption, medical and health, real - estate finance, and information technology sectors had increases of 0.31%, - 0.71%, - 0.08%, and 2.13% respectively. The telecommunications business and public utilities sectors had increases of 4.05% and 0.00% respectively [1] 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - IF Contracts and CSI 300: The previous values of the basis of IF (current month - CSI 300), IF (next month - CSI 300), IF (next quarter - CSI 300), and IF (far - quarter - CSI 300) were - 12.96, - 22.56, - 44.76, and - 67.16 respectively, and the previous two - day values were - 10.06, - 17.06, - 36.66, and - 57.06 respectively [1] - IH Contracts and SSE 50: The previous values of the basis of IH (current month - SSE 50), IH (next month - SSE 50), IH (next quarter - SSE 50), and IH (far - quarter - SSE 50) were - 1.79, - 3.39, - 2.79, and 0.21 respectively, and the previous two - day values were - 3.23, - 2.83, - 3.83, and - 2.03 respectively [1] - IC Contracts and CSI 500: The previous values of the basis of IC (current month - CSI 500), IC (next month - CSI 500), IC (next quarter - CSI 500), and IC (far - quarter - CSI 500) were - 68.71, - 129.11, - 249.31, and - 400.91 respectively, and the previous two - day values were - 56.17, - 115.37, - 232.57, and - 378.97 respectively [1] - IM Contracts and CSI 1000: The previous values of the basis of IM (current month - CSI 1000), IM (next month - CSI 1000), IM (next quarter - CSI 1000), and IM (far - quarter - CSI 1000) were - 79.17, - 141.57, - 291.97, and - 480.17 respectively, and the previous two - day values were - 60.23, - 125.43, - 269.63, and - 449.23 respectively [1] 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - Domestic Indexes: The previous values of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 3812.22, 12557.68, 7686.96, and 2904.27 respectively, and the previous two - day values were 3807.29, 12510.60, 7676.37, and 2867.97 respectively. The increases were 0.13%, 0.38%, 0.14%, and 1.27% respectively [1] - Overseas Indexes: The previous values of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index were 26200.26, 43837.67, 6532.04, and 23632.95 respectively, and the previous two - day values were 25938.13, 43459.29, 6512.61, and 23718.45 respectively. The increases were 1.01%, 0.87%, 0.30%, and - 0.36% respectively [1] 3.5 Macroeconomic Information - China's CPI in August was flat month - on - month and decreased by 0.4% year - on - year due to the high base and the drag of food prices. The core CPI increased by 0.9% year - on - year, with the increase expanding for the fourth consecutive month. The PPI decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared with the previous month, and was flat month - on - month, ending the eight - month downward trend [2] - The report on the implementation of the national economic and social development plan since this year pointed out that in the second half of the year, it is necessary to better coordinate domestic economic work and international economic and trade struggles, coordinate high - quality development and high - level security, maintain policy continuity and stability, enhance flexibility and predictability, focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, the market, and expectations, and promote the domestic and international dual - cycle, aiming to promote a reasonable recovery of the price level, social employment stability, and economic growth [2] - China will unswervingly expand high - level opening - up, actively align with international high - standard economic and trade rules, accelerate pilot implementation in platforms such as free trade pilot zones and national service trade innovation and development demonstration zones, and promote high - quality development of service trade [2] - China opposed the negative words and deeds of the US side, which damaged China's legitimate rights and interests and interfered in China's internal affairs [2] 3.6 Industry Information - Six departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly launched a special rectification action on network chaos in the automotive industry, focusing on issues such as online trolls and "black public relations" [2] - China has made major breakthroughs in prospecting for strategic emerging industry minerals, discovering an "Asian lithium belt" spanning four provinces and regions and multiple large and super - large lithium mines [2] - In August, the comprehensive inventory coefficient of automobile dealers was 1.31, a 3% month - on - month decrease and a 12.9% year - on - year increase. The inventory level was below the warning line but higher than the reasonable range. The passenger car terminal retail sales in September are expected to increase steadily month - on - month [2] - The China E - commerce Logistics Index in August was 112.3 points, up 0.3 points from the previous month, reaching a new high this year, and has increased for six consecutive months [2]