中信期货晨报：国内商品期货涨跌互现，能源化工短期受益中东冲突-20250911

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas: The US released its August non - farm payroll data, with only 22,000 new jobs added, falling short of the previous value and expectations. The slowdown in the US labor market is becoming more evident. The weak non - farm data increases the probability of a September interest rate cut, and Trump's "recalibration" of policies is beneficial to gold. In the long run, the US fundamentals are fair, and interest rate cuts are expected to boost the fundamentals further, with a weak US dollar pattern continuing [6]. - Domestic: In August, the PPI rebounded year - on - year, while the CPI declined. The anti - involution and trade - in policies have shown initial results. In the short term, domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities. The policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year, and there is a higher probability of incremental policies in the fourth quarter [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market - Stock Index Futures: The market uses a dumbbell structure to handle market divergence, and the short - term judgment is a sideways trend due to the decline in incremental funds [8]. - Stock Index Options: The hedging and defensive approach continues, and the short - term judgment is a sideways trend, with concerns about the deterioration of option market liquidity [8]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The stock - bond seesaw may continue in the short term, and the short - term judgment is a sideways trend, with attention to factors such as unexpected tariffs, supply, and monetary easing [8]. 3.2 Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: The restart of the US interest rate cut cycle in September and the increased risk of the Fed's independence drive prices up. The short - term judgment is a sideways - up trend, with attention to the US fundamentals, Fed's monetary policy, and the global equity market trend [8]. 3.3 Shipping - Container Shipping to Europe: The market focuses on the game between peak - season expectations and the implementation of price increases. The short - term judgment is a sideways trend, with attention to tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies [8]. 3.4 Black Building Materials - Steel Products: The impact of production restrictions weakens, and the price is in a low - level sideways trend. The short - term judgment is a sideways trend, with attention to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and hot metal production [8]. - Iron Ore: The hot metal production decreases more than expected, and port inventories increase slightly. The short - term judgment is a sideways trend, with attention to overseas mine production and shipment, domestic hot metal production, weather, port inventory changes, and policy dynamics [8]. - Coke: After the military parade production restrictions end, the first round of price cuts begins. The short - term judgment is a sideways trend, with attention to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [8]. - Coking Coal: The supply drops significantly, and the spot price weakens. The short - term judgment is a sideways trend, with attention to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [8]. 3.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: The risk of overseas recession rises, putting pressure on copper prices. The short - term judgment is a sideways - down trend, with attention to supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - than - expected dovishness from the Fed, and less - than - expected domestic demand recovery [8]. - Aluminum Oxide: The warehouse receipts increase again, and the price is under sideways pressure. The short - term judgment is a sideways - down trend, with attention to factors such as unexpected delays in ore复产 and unexpected increases in electrolytic aluminum复产 [8]. - Aluminum: Market sentiment fluctuates, and the price continues to rise. The short - term judgment is a sideways trend, with attention to macro risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand [8]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Supply pressure persists, and the short - term judgment is a sideways - down trend, with attention to OPEC+ production policies and the Middle East geopolitical situation [10]. - LPG: The valuation repair is over, and the short - term judgment is a sideways trend, with attention to cost - side developments such as crude oil and overseas propane [10]. - Asphalt: The spot prices in South China and Shandong are at parity, and the futures price is in a downward trend below 3500. The short - term judgment is a downward trend, with attention to sanctions and supply disruptions [10]. 3.7 Agriculture - Oils and Fats: The MPOB report is relatively bearish, and market sentiment is weak. The short - term judgment is a sideways trend, with attention to US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [10]. - Protein Meal: The market has both long and short factors, and the price continues to fluctuate narrowly. The short - term judgment is a sideways trend, with attention to US soybean weather, domestic demand, macro factors, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars [10]. - Corn/Starch: As new grains are gradually put on the market, look for opportunities to short at high prices. The short - term judgment is a sideways trend, with attention to less - than - expected demand, macro factors, and weather [10].