尿素日报：内需偏弱，厂内库存小幅累库-20250911

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - For cross - period trading, before the export window period, UR01 - 05 positive spread can be used to trade fluctuations; after the export window period, UR01 - 05 short the spread when it is high. Cross - variety: None [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic urea spot market has weak domestic demand, with manufacturers reducing prices to attract orders and light trading. The agricultural autumn fertilizer season has started in some areas, and industrial demand from compound fertilizer and melamine is for essential purchases. The industrial demand was relatively weak due to the impact of the parade on factories, but the operating rate will recover. Urea production remains at a high level, and the medium - and long - term supply - demand is still loose with the release of new production capacity. Coal - based urea has decent profits, and the cost support is average. The export side has a significant impact on urea price sentiment. Attention should be paid to the Indian NFL urea import tender, and the export in August and September is expected to be good, which may lead to a decrease in urea inventory. We should focus on the resonance period of increased export speed and improved domestic demand [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Urea Basis Structure - On September 10, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1669 yuan/ton (-14). The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1670 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1670 yuan/ton (+0), and in Jiangsu was 1650 yuan/ton (-20). The small - sized anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (+0). The Shandong basis was 1 yuan/ton (+14), the Henan basis was 1 yuan/ton (+4), and the Jiangsu basis was - 19 yuan/ton (-6) [1] 3.2 Urea Production - As of September 10, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 78.11% (0.08%). Urea production remains at a high level, and with the release of new production capacity, the medium - and long - term urea supply - demand is still loose [1][2] 3.3 Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The urea production profit was 140 yuan/ton (+0). The coal - based urea profit is decent, and the cost support is average [1][2] 3.4 Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - The export profit was 1085 yuan/ton (+6). The export side has a significant impact on urea price sentiment. Attention should be paid to the Indian NFL urea import tender, and the export in August and September is expected to be good, which may lead to a decrease in urea inventory [1][2] 3.5 Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of September 10, 2025, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 33.08% (-6.14%); the melamine capacity utilization rate was 58.98% (+0.48%); the urea enterprise advance order days were 6.88 days (+0.47). The industrial demand was relatively weak due to the parade, but the operating rate will recover [1][2] 3.6 Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of September 10, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 113.27 million tons (+3.77), and the port sample inventory was 62.09 million tons (+2.09). The export is ongoing, the port inventory is accumulating, and the export in August and September may lead to a decrease in urea inventory [1][2]