供应预期反复，新能源金属宽幅波动

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial silicon: Oscillating [5] - Polysilicon: Oscillating [5] - Lithium carbonate: Oscillating weakly [10] Core Views of the Report - In the short - to - medium term, the repeated supply expectations and capital games have magnified price fluctuations, leading to wide - range fluctuations in new energy metal prices. In the long term, the supply of silicon, especially polysilicon, is expected to contract, with a possible rise in the price center; the lithium ore production capacity is still rising, and the high growth of lithium carbonate supply will limit the upside of lithium prices [1] - Industrial silicon: Supply is relatively loose, and silicon prices will oscillate [2][5] - Polysilicon: Policy expectations are volatile, increasing the price fluctuations of polysilicon [2][5] - Lithium carbonate: After the mine restart meeting, the trading of lithium carbonate has returned to fundamentals [2][8] Summary by Related Catalogs I. Market Views Industrial Silicon - Information Analysis: As of September 10, the spot prices of industrial silicon fluctuated; the latest domestic inventory increased by 2.3% month - on - month; as of August 2025, the monthly output of domestic industrial silicon increased by 14.0% month - on - month and decreased by 18.7% year - on - year; in July, industrial silicon exports increased by 8.3% month - on - month and 36.7% year - on - year; in July, domestic photovoltaic new installations decreased by 23.1% month - on - month and 47.6% year - on - year [5] - Main Logic: The market is highly concerned about the supply - side reform of the silicon industry chain. Currently, the supply of industrial silicon is rising, putting pressure on prices. The supply pressure mainly comes from the northwest and southwest regions. The demand side has slightly improved month - on - month. There is a cumulative pressure on social inventory and futures warrants [5] - Outlook: The "anti - involution" expectations repeatedly affect silicon prices. The supply is relatively loose, limiting the upside of silicon prices, and the prices will oscillate [5] Polysilicon - Information Analysis: The成交 price of N - type re -投料 is between 47,000 - 52,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 49,000 yuan/ton, a 2.3% week - on - week increase; the number of polysilicon warrants on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange has increased; in July, China's polysilicon exports decreased by 3.92% month - on - month and 63.14% year - on - year, and imports increased by 5.11% month - on - month; from January to July 2025, domestic photovoltaic new installations increased by 81% year - on - year [5][6] - Main Logic: Macroeconomic "anti - involution" sentiment is volatile, increasing price fluctuations. The supply has increased, and the demand may weaken in the second half of the year. The current supply - demand situation is still under pressure [8] - Outlook: The anti - involution policy significantly boosts polysilicon prices. If the policy expectations fade, prices may fluctuate in the opposite direction [8] Lithium Carbonate - Information Analysis: On September 10, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract decreased by 2.99% to 70,720 yuan; the total position of lithium carbonate contracts decreased by 10,197 lots; the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 1,150 yuan to 73,450 yuan/ton; the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate was 800 US dollars/ton [8][9] - Main Logic: The market has returned to fundamental trading. The supply of lithium carbonate may exceed expectations, the demand is expected to increase month - on - month in September, the social inventory is slightly decreasing, and the warrants are gradually recovering. The current supply - demand gap is not obvious [10] - Outlook: The short - term supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the long - term oversupply and supply recovery expectations suppress prices. The prices are expected to oscillate weakly [10] II. Market Monitoring - The report mentions the monitoring of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate, but no specific monitoring content is provided [11][15][26]