FICC日报：运价中枢继续下修，马士基WEEK39周报价开出-20250911

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - 10 - month contract: In the off - season, the contract is mainly short - allocated, and the valuation continues to decline. The uncertainty lies in the second half of October. The current top - end valuation of the 10 - month contract may be around 1200 points, and the key is whether shipping companies will try to support prices in the second half of October [6][7]. - 12 - month contract: The off - peak and peak season pattern remains. In the near term, the expected price increase in November can be speculated on. However, the risk is the bottom of the current freight rate decline, and if US - bound ships are diverted to European routes, it may put pressure on European route prices [8]. - Strategy: The main contract fluctuates weakly on a single - side basis, and it is advisable to short the 10 - month contract on an arbitrage basis [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Analysis - Online quotes: Different shipping companies have different price quotes for routes such as Shanghai - Rotterdam. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam price in Week 38 was $1050/1760, and in Week 39 it was $1550/FEU. Other companies like HPL, MSC, ONE, HMM, YML, CMA, EMC, and OOCL also have their respective price quotes for different time periods [1][2][3]. - Geopolitical situation: Israel has launched an attack on Hamas' senior political leaders in Doha, Qatar, which has led to condemnation from Qatar [3]. 3.2 Container Ship Capacity Supply - Static supply: As of September 7, 2025, 182 container ships with a total capacity of 1.472 million TEU have been delivered in 2025. There are significant delivery expectations from 2025 - 2028, especially in 2027, 2028, and 2029 for ships over 17,000 TEU [4]. - Dynamic supply: MSC and the Gemini Alliance have announced empty sailings during the Chinese Golden Week. There are also differences in monthly average capacity and the number of empty sailings and TBNs between September and October. HPL has announced two additional ships in October [5]. 3.3 Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices: As of September 10, 2025, the positions and trading volumes of all contracts of the container shipping index for European routes are provided, along with the closing prices of specific contracts such as EC2602, EC2604, etc. [9]. - Spot prices: SCFI and SCFIS prices for different routes such as Shanghai - Europe, Shanghai - West US, and Shanghai - East US are given [8][9]. 3.4 Strategy and Risk - Strategy: The main contract shows a weak - oscillating trend on a single - side basis, and it is recommended to short the 10 - month contract for arbitrage [10]. - Risks: Downside risks include an unexpected economic slowdown in Europe and the US, a sharp drop in oil prices, etc.; upside risks include economic recovery in Europe and the US, supply chain disruptions, etc. [10]