燃料油日报：埃及高硫燃料油进口持续回落-20250911

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, medium-term downward [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, medium-term downward [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Spot-futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2. Core View - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed up 1.09% at 2,786 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.48% at 3,383 yuan/ton [1] - Crude oil prices are oscillating in a range. In the short term, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine is unclear, and in the medium term, there is an expectation of oversupply, providing limited guidance on fuel oil price direction [1] - High-sulfur fuel oil is in the stage of market rebalancing, with recent spreads stabilizing and slightly rebounding. There are both long and short factors, with relatively ample near-term supply and high inventory in Singapore. As summer ends, fuel oil demand in the Middle East is expected to decline. Egypt's high-sulfur fuel oil imports in September are currently estimated at 280,000 tons, a decrease of 150,000 tons from the previous month [1] - For low-sulfur fuel oil, the current market contradictions are limited. Domestic production has increased but remains at a low level. The external market structure has made small adjustments, and downstream marine fuel demand is average. In the medium term, low-sulfur fuel oil still faces the contradictions of demand share substitution and surplus capacity, so while there is some support below the valuation, the upward resistance is also large [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Fuel oil futures prices: The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed up 1.09% at 2,786 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.48% at 3,383 yuan/ton [1] - Crude oil price situation: Crude oil prices are oscillating in a range. In the short term, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine is unclear, and in the medium term, there is an expectation of oversupply, providing limited guidance on fuel oil price direction [1] - High-sulfur fuel oil fundamentals: In the stage of market rebalancing, recent spreads have stabilized and slightly rebounded. There are both long and short factors, with relatively ample near-term supply and high inventory in Singapore. As summer ends, fuel oil demand in the Middle East is expected to decline. Egypt's high-sulfur fuel oil imports in September are currently estimated at 280,000 tons, a decrease of 150,000 tons from the previous month [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil fundamentals: Current market contradictions are limited. Domestic production has increased but remains at a low level. The external market structure has made small adjustments, and downstream marine fuel demand is average. In the medium term, it still faces the contradictions of demand share substitution and surplus capacity, so while there is some support below the valuation, the upward resistance is also large [1] Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, medium-term downward [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, medium-term downward [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Spot-futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] Figures - Multiple figures show the prices, spreads, contract prices, and trading volumes of Singapore high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oils, as well as Shanghai fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil futures, with units including US dollars/ton and yuan/ton, and hands [3]