原油日报：特朗普考虑协同欧盟对俄实施更多二级关税或制裁-20250911

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Short - term: Oil prices will oscillate within a range; Medium - term: Bearish allocation [4] 2. Core View - Trump is considering collaborating with the EU to impose more secondary tariffs and sanctions on Russian oil. However, due to some EU countries still importing Russian oil and gas, it's difficult to pass secondary tariffs or sanctions on these EU countries, and Western sanctions on Russia seem to be at a dead - end, unable to balance stable oil and gas prices and sanctions against Russia [3] 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - On the New York Mercantile Exchange, the October - delivered light crude oil futures price rose $1.04 to $63.67 per barrel, a 1.66% increase; the November - delivered London Brent crude oil futures price rose $1.10 to $67.49 per barrel, also a 1.66% increase. The SC crude oil main contract closed up 0.82% at 490 yuan per barrel [1] - The US Energy Secretary plans to expand crude oil and refined oil production and increase exports to Europe [2] - The White House is reviewing a plan to require large refineries to bear part of the reduced biofuel blending volume due to small refineries' exemptions, with large refineries compensating for 50% or less of the exempted biofuel volume [2] - EU Commission President von der Leyen is considering speeding up the phase - out of Russian fossil fuels and imposing sanctions on the oil shadow fleet and third - countries in the 19th round of sanctions against Russia [2] - Russian oil exports reached a three - month high, with the four - week average seaborne exports up 4% to about 3.34 million barrels per day as of September 7, and the seven - day data showing an increase of 200,000 barrels per day to 3.9 million barrels per day [2] - As of the week ending September 8, the total refined oil inventory at the Fujairah Port in the UAE increased by 1.518 million barrels to 16.024 million barrels. Light distillate inventory increased by 88,000 barrels to 6.741 million barrels, a 1.3% increase; medium distillate inventory decreased by 116,000 barrels to 2.188 million barrels, a 5% decrease; heavy residual fuel oil inventory increased by 1.546 million barrels to 7.095 million barrels [2] Investment Logic - Trump wants to impose tariffs on some EU countries (Hungary and Slovakia) that import Russian oil through pipelines (about 250,000 barrels per day) in addition to sanctions. But secondary tariffs or sanctions on EU countries may not pass, and Western sanctions on Russia are in a deadlock [3] Strategy - Short - term: Oil prices will oscillate within a range; Medium - term: Bearish allocation [4] Risk - Downward risks: The US relaxes sanctions on Russian oil, and macro black - swan events occur - Upward risks: The US tightens sanctions on Russian oil, and large - scale supply disruptions are caused by Middle - East conflicts [4]