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新能源及有色金属日报：下游刚需采购对现货贴水难有改善-20250911
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-09-11 05:22

Report Summary Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] Core View - Domestic downstream procurement is difficult to improve, and the spot discount continues to widen under rigid - demand procurement. The domestic and foreign contradiction pattern persists, with overseas inventory continuously decreasing and domestic inventory increasing. The domestic fundamentals are weak, but the overseas situation provides favorable price support. [4] Summary by Directory Important Data - Spot: LME zinc spot premium is $17.62/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,090 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a premium of - 70 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,060 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 100 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,080 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 80 yuan/ton [1] - Futures: On September 10, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,160 yuan/ton and closed at 22,215 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 83,724 lots, and the open interest was 103,054 lots. The highest price was 22,245 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,110 yuan/ton [2] - Inventory: As of September 10, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 152,100 tons, a change of 3,200 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 50,825 tons, a change of - 200 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - Domestic downstream procurement is difficult to improve, and the spot discount continues to widen. The domestic and foreign contradiction pattern persists, with overseas inventory decreasing and domestic inventory increasing. The domestic fundamentals are weak, with domestic TC slightly decreasing in September. The domestic smelting profit still exists, and the supply pressure is high. In August, zinc ingot production increased by 28% year - on - year. The overseas situation provides favorable price support, with a good macro - environment, supply contraction, and potential squeeze - out risk [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5]