化工日报：天然橡胶社会库存环比继续下降-20250911

Report Investment Rating - The rating for RU and NR is neutral [7]. - The rating for BR is neutral [7]. Core Viewpoints - For natural rubber, with decreasing rainfall in major production areas, raw material prices may rise, weakening cost - side support. Despite average downstream demand, tire factory开工率 is expected to rebound this week as it's the traditional peak season. Port and social inventories are currently decreasing but may rise again after downstream stocking [7]. - For BR, some upstream devices are under maintenance, expected to reduce supply. With the rebound of tire factory开工率 and the peak - season effect, demand is expected to improve. The price may rise, but the impact of weak crude oil on upstream raw materials should be noted [7]. Market News and Data Futures - The closing price of the RU main contract was 15,980 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,715 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 11,720 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [1]. Spot - The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,100 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; Qingdao Free Trade Zone Thai mixed rubber was 15,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; Thai 20 - standard rubber was 1,865 US dollars/ton, unchanged; Indonesian 20 - standard rubber was 1,785 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of BR9000 from Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical was 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,700 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [1]. Market Information Import and Export - In August 2025, China imported 66.4 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), up 7.8% year - on - year. From January to August, the total import was 537.3 tons, up 19% year - on - year [2]. - In the first 8 months of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports were 1.05 million tons, up 14.4% year - on - year. In August, exports increased 14.8% year - on - year but decreased 8.9% month - on - month [2]. - In August 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles, down 1% month - on - month and up 35% year - on - year. From January to August, the cumulative sales were about 708,000 vehicles, up 13% year - on - year [2]. - In the first 7 months of 2025, Thailand exported 1.586 million tons of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber), down 5% year - on - year. Among them, standard rubber exports were 919,000 tons, down 15% year - on - year; smoked sheet rubber exports were 227,000 tons, up 25% year - on - year; latex exports were 431,000 tons, up 9% year - on - year [2]. - From January to July, Thailand exported 622,000 tons of natural rubber to China, up 7% year - on - year. Among them, standard rubber exports to China were 398,000 tons, down 15% year - on - year; smoked sheet rubber exports to China were 65,000 tons, up 306% year - on - year; latex exports to China were 157,000 tons, up 65% year - on - year [3]. - In the first 7 months of 2025, China's rubber tire exports were 5.63 million tons, up 5.4% year - on - year, and the export value was 99.2 billion yuan, up 5.4% year - on - year. From January to July, automobile tire exports were 4.8 million tons, up 4.9% year - on - year, and the export value was 81.9 billion yuan, up 4.9% year - on - year [3]. Market Analysis Natural Rubber Spot and Spreads - On September 10, 2025, the RU basis was - 880 yuan/ton (+10), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 980 yuan/ton (+40), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,428 yuan/ton (+88.02), the NR basis was 538.00 yuan/ton (+30.00); whole latex was 15,100 yuan/ton (+50), mixed rubber was 15,000 yuan/ton (+0), 3L spot was 15,300 yuan/ton (+0). The STR20 was quoted at 1,865 US dollars/ton (+0), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 200 yuan/ton (+50); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,700 yuan/ton (+0) [4]. Raw Materials - The price of Thai smoked sheet was 60.98 baht/kg (- 0.12), Thai latex was 56.00 baht/kg (+0.00), Thai cup lump was 52.55 baht/kg (- 0.40), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 3.45 baht/kg (+0.40) [5]. 开工率 - The开工率 of all - steel tires was 60.74% (- 4.15%), and that of semi - steel tires was 66.92% (- 4.05%) [6]. Inventory - The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,257,715 tons (- 7,183.00), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 592,275 tons (- 10,020), the RU futures inventory was 162,230 tons (- 16,410), and the NR futures inventory was 46,569 tons (+907) [6]. 顺丁橡胶 Spot and Spreads - On September 10, 2025, the BR basis was - 70 yuan/ton (- 130), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,350 yuan/ton (+0), the price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,900 yuan/ton (+0), the price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,700 yuan/ton (- 50), the price of private - owned顺丁橡胶 in Shandong was 11,580 yuan/ton (- 70), and the import profit of顺丁橡胶 in Northeast Asia was - 1,506 yuan/ton (- 50) [6]. 开工率 - The开工率 of high - cis顺丁橡胶 was 76.16% (+0.31%) [6]. Inventory - The trade inventory of顺丁橡胶 was 8,210 tons (+950), and the enterprise inventory of顺丁橡胶 was 26,300 tons (+1,650) [6]. Strategy - For natural rubber, due to the expected increase in raw material prices in major production areas, the cost - side support will weaken. Although downstream demand is average, with the rebound of tire factory开工率 in the peak season, demand is expected to improve. Port and social inventories are currently decreasing but may rise after downstream stocking [7]. - For BR, with some upstream device maintenance, supply is expected to decrease. With the rebound of tire factory开工率 in the peak season, demand is expected to improve. The price may rise, but the impact of weak crude oil on upstream raw materials should be noted [7].