Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices are expected to continue a moderate recovery. The market has digested concerns about the US recession and shifted to expectations of Fed rate - cuts. Domestic CPI performance also spurs expectations of domestic growth - stabilizing policies, and the expected improvement in fundamentals during the "Golden September and Silver October" period will support copper prices [1]. - Aluminum prices are generally strong. Alumina,沪铝, and aluminum alloy are all showing a bullish trend. Although there is an oversupply situation in alumina, the overall aluminum market is in a macro - micro resonance mode, and the end of tax rebates for recycled aluminum restricts supply, making aluminum alloy relatively more resilient [1][2]. - Nickel prices may continue to be strong. With marginal improvements in nickel - iron and the new energy sectors, there are opportunities for long - positions at low prices. The cost support for stainless steel is strengthening, and the new energy raw material prices may remain strong due to tight supply [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views Copper - Macro: US August PPI inflation unexpectedly declined, providing grounds for Fed rate - cuts. In China, the CPI turned negative year - on - year in August, and the PPI decline narrowed. The finance minister emphasized strengthening the domestic market and implementing more proactive macro - policies [1]. - Inventory: LME copper inventory decreased by 225 tons to 155,050 tons; Comex copper inventory increased by 916 tons to 280,056 tons; SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 45 tons to 19,126 tons; BC copper remained at 4,418 tons [1]. - Demand: As the peak season approaches, high copper prices have led to weak downstream procurement [1]. Aluminum - Price: Alumina,沪铝, and aluminum alloy all showed a bullish trend. AO2601 closed at 2,944 yuan/ton, up 0.75%; AL2510 closed at 20,830 yuan/ton, up 0.22%; AD2511 closed at 20,390 yuan/ton, up 0.2% [1]. - Inventory: The overall situation is complex, with changes in different varieties and trading venues [1][2]. - Market: Environmental protection restrictions in some areas have affected downstream start - up, and the inventory inflection point for aluminum ingots has been postponed [2]. Nickel - Price: LME nickel rose 0.43% to 15,170 US dollars/ton, and沪镍 rose 0.24% to 120,780 yuan/ton [2]. - Inventory: LME nickel inventory increased by 3,024 tons to 221,094 tons; domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 295 tons to 22,304 tons [2]. - Market: Nickel - iron and new energy sectors are showing marginal improvements, and stainless steel cost support is strengthening [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring Copper - Price: The price of flat - water copper increased by 40 yuan/ton to 79,840 yuan/ton; the premium of flat - water copper decreased by 20 yuan/ton [3]. - Inventory: LME registered + cancelled inventory decreased by 550 tons; SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 155 tons; COMEX inventory increased by 1,739 tons; social inventory increased by 0.7 million tons [3]. Aluminum - Price: Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum prices increased; the price of Shandong alumina decreased by 30 yuan/ton; the price of ADC12 aluminum alloy in South China increased by 100 yuan/ton [5]. - Inventory: LME registered + cancelled inventory remained unchanged; SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 74 tons; total inventory decreased by 1,518 tons; alumina social inventory increased by 2.1 million tons [5]. Nickel - Price: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 600 yuan/ton; the price of nickel - iron remained stable; the price of some stainless steel products increased [5]. - Inventory: LME registered + cancelled inventory increased by 456 tons; SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 173 tons; nickel social inventory increased by 460 tons [5]. Zinc - Price: The main settlement price decreased by 0.2%; SMM 0 and 1 spot prices increased by 50 yuan/ton; the prices of zinc alloy and zinc oxide also changed to varying degrees [7]. - Inventory: SHFE inventory increased by 793 tons; LME inventory remained unchanged; social inventory increased by 0.14 million tons [7]. Tin - Price: The main settlement price decreased by 0.5%; LME S3 price decreased by 2.1%; SMM spot price increased by 900 yuan/ton [7]. - Inventory: SHFE inventory increased by 207 tons; LME inventory remained unchanged [7]. 3. Chart Analysis - Spot Premium: Charts show the spot premium trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [9][11][12]. - SHFE Near - Far Month Spread: Charts display the near - far month spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [16][21]. - LME Inventory: Charts present the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [25][27][29]. - SHFE Inventory: Charts show the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [32][34][36]. - Social Inventory: Charts display the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [38][40][42]. - Smelting Profit: Charts show the trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [45][47][49]. 4. Non - ferrous Metals Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with extensive experience in commodity research and many awards [52]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures, focusing on aluminum and silicon research [52]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures, focusing on lithium and nickel research [53].
光大期货有色商品日报-20250911
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-09-11 05:17