贵金属日报：PPI数据趋弱，降息预期再获强化-20250911

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core Viewpoints - The weaker-than-expected US PPI data reinforces the expectation of the Fed's shift to easing in September, and the market may trade on the expectation of more-than-expected easing. Gold prices are expected to be in a strong oscillatory pattern, with the Au2510 contract oscillating between 810 yuan/gram and 850 yuan/gram [8]. - Silver has a similar macro logic to gold and benefits from its industrial attributes. The gold-silver ratio is expected to narrow. Silver prices are also expected to maintain a strong oscillatory pattern, with the Ag2510 contract oscillating between 9,600 yuan/kilogram and 10,100 yuan/kilogram [8]. Market Analysis - In macro data, the US PPI decreased 0.1% month-on-month in August, turning negative for the first time in four months, with an expected increase of 0.3%; year-on-year, it rose 2.6%, while the expected was to remain flat at 3.3%. This may strengthen the Fed's motivation to cut interest rates at the September meeting [1]. - The US Supreme Court will quickly review the legitimacy of most tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, with oral arguments scheduled for the first week of November. The Trump administration can continue to implement relevant tariff policies before the final judgment [1]. - Indian Prime Minister Modi said that India and the US are working to complete trade negotiations as soon as possible, and the negotiations will unleash the "unlimited potential" of the bilateral partnership. He also looks forward to meeting with US President Trump [1]. Futures Quotes and Volumes - On September 10, 2025, the Shanghai gold主力 contract opened at 834.06 yuan/gram and closed at 833.42 yuan/gram, a change of -0.13% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 836.62 yuan/gram and closed at 835.16 yuan/gram, up 0.21% from the afternoon close [2]. - On September 10, 2025, the Shanghai silver主力 contract opened at 9,798.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 9,796.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of -0.51% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 485,859 lots, and the open interest was 212,530 lots. In the night session, it opened at 9,803 yuan/kilogram and closed at 9,817 yuan/kilogram, up 0.21% from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On September 10, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.051%, down 0.39 BP from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields was 0.507%, down 0.23 BP from the previous trading day [3]. SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Volume Changes - On September 10, 2025, in the Au2508 contract, the long positions changed by 257 lots compared with the previous day, and the short positions changed by 278 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contract on the previous trading day was 525,000 lots, a change of 11.58% from the previous trading day [4]. - In the Ag2508 contract, the long positions changed by 2 lots, and the short positions changed by -2 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract on the previous trading day was 1,066,280 lots, a change of -0.10% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF holdings were 979.95 tons yesterday, an increase of 0.27 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF holdings were 15,069.6 tons, a decrease of 67.78 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On September 10, 2025, the domestic gold premium was -4.06 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -751.75 yuan/kilogram [6]. - The price ratio of the Shanghai gold and silver主力 contracts was about 85.08 yesterday, a change of 0.38% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 88.58, a change of 1.06% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On September 10, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 49,162 kilograms, a change of -21.48% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 566,582 kilograms, a change of 47.34% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 20,082 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 14,880 kilograms [7].