新能源及有色金属日报：市场成交相对偏低，铅价维持震荡格局-20250911

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral - Arbitrage: Suspended [5] 2) Core View The peak - season demand for lead is not obvious, and the supply - demand pattern has been generally weak. This pattern may not change significantly in September. Under the background of the Fed's interest rate cut, lead prices may maintain a volatile and slightly stronger pattern. It is recommended to sell high and buy low between 16,300 yuan/ton and 17,200 yuan/ton [5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - Spot: On September 10, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$48.13/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price dropped by 75 yuan/ton to 16,700 yuan/ton. Lead prices in different regions and prices of related products like lead scrap also had corresponding changes [2]. - Futures: On September 10, 2025, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 16,895 yuan/ton and closed at 16,795 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 45,315 lots, an increase of 14,839 lots. The position was 50,467 lots, an increase of 766 lots. During the night session, it closed at 16,845 yuan/ton, up 0.03% from the afternoon close. The lead market had weak supply and demand, with weak downstream purchasing enthusiasm and light trading [3]. - Inventory: On September 10, 2025, the SMM lead ingot inventory was 68,000 tons, an increase of 1,600 tons from last week. As of September 11, the LME lead inventory was 237,000 tons, a decrease of 2,325 tons from the previous trading day [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Maintain a neutral view. Due to the unclear peak - season demand and the supply - demand pattern that is difficult to change in September, but with the Fed's interest rate cut, the lead price may be volatile and slightly stronger. It is recommended to trade within the range of 16,300 - 17,200 yuan/ton [5]. - Arbitrage: Suspend operations [5]