能耗政策扰动，工业硅盘面偏强运行

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the current fundamentals have little change, and the futures market is running strongly, mainly influenced by the market's expectations of energy - consumption policies during the association meeting. It is expected to fluctuate widely under the influence of overall commodity sentiment and policy expectations [2]. - For polysilicon, the current fundamentals are average, but the downstream production schedule is better than expected. The recent large decline in the futures market is due to the high settlement price of the previous day and the large increase last week. The futures price decline is to some extent a regression of the basis. The market is affected by both weak reality and strong policy expectations, with large fluctuations in the near - term. If the anti - involution policy progresses well, polysilicon can be considered for long - term low - buying [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - Market Analysis - On September 10, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price was running strongly. The main contract 2511 opened at 8300 yuan/ton and closed at 8665 yuan/ton, a change of 135 yuan/ton (1.58%) from the previous day's settlement price. The position of the main contract 2511 was 278,065 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50,045 lots, a change of 90 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9000 - 9200 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9300 - 9500 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8400 - 8600 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8400 - 8600 yuan/ton. The silicon prices in other regions also remained stable [1]. - The price of silicone DMC was 10,600 - 10,800 yuan/ton. The monomer factory's pre - sales orders were relatively sufficient, with little inventory pressure. Downstream enterprises still mainly replenished inventory at low prices, and the support for the market was relatively limited. It is expected that silicone will stabilize in the short term [1]. - Strategy - The spot price remains stable, and the fundamentals have little change. The futures market is expected to fluctuate widely under the influence of overall commodity sentiment and policy expectations [2]. Polysilicon - Market Analysis - On September 10, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures fluctuated. It opened at 52,400 yuan/ton and closed at 52,885 yuan/ton, a change of - 4.40% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 137,072 lots (142,980 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 411,979 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of N - type material was 49.10 - 54.00 yuan/kg, and the price of n - type granular silicon was 48.00 - 49.00 yuan/kg [4]. - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers decreased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 21.10 (a month - on - month change of - 0.90%), the silicon wafer inventory was 16.85GW (a month - on - month change of - 6.65%), the weekly polysilicon output was 30,200 tons (a month - on - month change of - 2.58%), and the silicon wafer output was 13.78GW (a month - on - month change of 3.53%) [4]. - The prices of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers were 1.28 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm were 1.63 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.38 yuan/piece (a decrease of 0.03 yuan/piece) [4]. - The prices of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells were 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 battery cells were about 0.31 yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.30 yuan/W, Topcon210RN battery cells were 0.29 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery cells were 0.37 yuan/W [4][6]. - The mainstream transaction prices of PERC182mm components were 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm were 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm were 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm were 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W [6]. - Strategy - Short - term range operation for single - side trading; no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading. If the anti - involution policy progresses well, polysilicon can be considered for long - term low - buying [7].