丙烯，维持偏弱震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating for propylene is to maintain a weak and volatile trend [1] Core View of the Report - Although the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is increasing and the macro - factor is improving, the propylene industry factor remains weak. With the increase in domestic propylene production, external import pressure, and weak downstream demand, the domestic propylene inventory is accumulating. It is expected that the 2601 contract of propylene futures may maintain a weak and volatile trend in the future [2][5] Summary by Relevant Contents Market Performance of Propylene Futures - Since the listing of the domestic propylene futures 2601 contract, the price has been in a downward trend after reaching a high of 6,708 yuan/ton on the first day. This week, it has been running in the range of 6,350 - 6,450 yuan/ton [2] Impact of Macro - factors - The Fed's internal call for interest rate cuts is increasing. The weak employment data in August has strengthened the market expectation of an interest rate cut in the September meeting. The market generally expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September and December. If the US labor market further weakens in September and October, the Fed may also cut interest rates in October, and the rate cut in 2026 "may be greater". The macro - factor improvement boosts the valuation of energy and chemical commodities [2] Supply of Propylene - Due to the profit repair of domestic PDH plants, the capacity utilization rate of domestic propylene plants increased by 0.9% to 73.4% in August 2025, with a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. The output in August reached 5.3056 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.6% and a year - on - year increase of 15.7%. In early September, the production continued to increase. Considering the restart plans of some plants, the domestic propylene supply is expected to be gradually relaxed [3] - Although the supply from South Korea is expected to decrease, the increased supply from Southeast Asia will offset part of the reduction, and the import pressure of domestic propylene still exists [3] Demand for Propylene - Polypropylene accounts for more than two - thirds of propylene demand. Due to the negative feedback from the demand side, the profit of external - purchase PP plants is in a loss, and the raw material procurement willingness is low. Other downstream products have rigid demand but high - price raw materials suppress demand. It is predicted that the overall consumption of propylene in September 2025 may decline by 0.68% month - on - month [4] Inventory of Propylene - As of September 4, the domestic propylene manufacturer inventory was 37,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.55%, increasing the downward pressure on propylene prices [4]