国泰海通晨报-20250911

Core Insights - The report highlights a marginal improvement in real estate sales, particularly in first-tier cities, while durable goods consumption shows signs of weakness due to high base effects from the previous year [2][10] - The expectation of interest rate cuts has led to a significant increase in gold prices, reflecting a shift in market sentiment [2][10] Real Estate Sector - In the week of September 1-7, new home sales in 30 major cities increased by 4.4% year-on-year, with first-tier cities experiencing a continued narrowing of sales decline [3][11] - The transaction area for new homes in first-tier cities decreased by 6.8%, while second and third-tier cities saw increases of 8.2% and 11.4%, respectively [3][11] - The construction activity in the real estate sector remains weak, with infrastructure demand still low, impacting the demand for construction materials [3][10] Durable Goods Consumption - National retail sales of passenger cars in August 2025 increased by 4.6% year-on-year, but the growth rate has slowed significantly due to high base effects from the previous year [3][11] - The service consumption index saw a decline during the back-to-school week, with a notable drop in movie box office revenues by 51% compared to the previous week [3][11] Manufacturing & Technology - The construction demand in the real estate sector continues to be weak, affecting the overall construction activity [3][12] - Global semiconductor sales showed strong growth, with a year-on-year increase of 20.6% in July 2025, driven by robust demand in AI-related applications [3][12] Upstream Resources - Coal prices have decreased by 1.6% month-on-month as the peak demand season comes to an end [4][12] - Gold prices have surged significantly due to expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, with domestic industrial metal prices also showing slight increases [4][12] Logistics and Transportation - Passenger transport demand has declined month-on-month following the end of the summer season, although it remains higher year-on-year [13] - The logistics sector is experiencing a slight downturn, with a decrease in express delivery volumes [13]