房地产行业第36周周报：新房二手房成交同比增速均提升，深圳进一步优化限购限贷政策-20250911

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the new housing transaction area has turned negative on a month-on-month basis but positive on a year-on-year basis, indicating a mixed market performance [18] - The report emphasizes that the second-hand housing transaction area has seen an expanded month-on-month decline while the year-on-year increase has also expanded, suggesting a recovery trend in the second-hand market [18] - The report notes that the inventory of new homes has shifted from a negative to a positive month-on-month change, with a narrowing year-on-year decline, indicating improved market conditions [18] Summary by Sections New Housing Market Tracking - In the week of August 30 to September 5, 2025, new housing transaction volume in 40 cities was 19,000 units, a month-on-month decrease of 10.3% but a year-on-year increase of 11.9% [19] - The new housing transaction area was 184.9 million square meters, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 16.0% and a year-on-year increase of 5.2% [28] - The transaction volume for first, second, and third-fourth tier cities showed varied month-on-month growth rates of 13.7%, -16.7%, and -23.9% respectively [20][21] Inventory Situation - The inventory of new homes in 12 cities was 1.398 million units, with a month-on-month growth rate of 0.1% and a year-on-year decline of 15.0% [30] - The new home inventory turnover period was 18.7 months, showing a slight decrease month-on-month but an increase year-on-year [31] - The inventory turnover period for first, second, and third-fourth tier cities was 18.9, 15.7, and 72.1 months respectively [48] Second-Hand Housing Market Tracking - In the same week, second-hand housing transactions in 18 cities totaled 15,000 units, with a month-on-month decline of 13.4% and a year-on-year increase of 6.5% [51] - The transaction area for second-hand homes was 138.8 million square meters, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 11.3% and a year-on-year increase of 6.8% [57] - The transaction volume for first, second, and third-fourth tier cities showed month-on-month growth rates of -10.4%, -14.0%, and -16.2% respectively [55] Land Market Tracking - The total area of land transactions across 100 cities was 15.48 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 37.0% but a year-on-year decrease of 19.0% [64] - The total land transaction price was 26.04 billion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 74.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 47.7% [67] - The average land price per square meter was 1,681.9 yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 27.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 35.4% [66] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with stable fundamentals and high market share in core cities, such as Binjiang Group and China Resources Land [6] - It also highlights smaller companies that have made significant breakthroughs in sales and land acquisition since 2024, such as Poly Real Estate Group [6] - Companies benefiting from the ongoing recovery in the second-hand housing market, like Beike-W and Wo Ai Wo Jia, are also recommended [6]