农产品日报：基本面变化有限，板块延续震荡走势-20250911

Report Industry Investment Rating - All three commodities (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [3][6][8] Core Viewpoints - The global cotton supply - demand pattern has shifted from loose to tight, with short - term support for domestic cotton prices but potential pressure during new flower listing. Sugar prices are facing short - term downward pressure but limited downside due to low domestic inventory. Pulp prices are expected to continue low - level oscillations due to weak fundamentals [2][5][7] Summary by Commodity Cotton Market News and Key Data - Yesterday, the cotton 2601 contract closed at 13,855 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton (+0.14%). The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,210 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 15,286 yuan/ton, down 49 yuan/ton [1] - Floods in Pakistan's Punjab province damaged about 35% of cotton crops, with 40 - 50% damage in the largest producing area, Bahawalnagar [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, India's extended tariff exemption supports US cotton. The USDA's August report tightened the global cotton supply - demand pattern, but some production adjustments may be incomplete. US cotton's upside is limited by slow export sales. Domestically, cotton de - stocking is fast, commercial inventory is low, and short - term price support is strong. New - year production increase expectations are high, but there may be early - stage grabbing and later - stage hedging pressure [2] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. Short - term support for Zhengzhou cotton is strong before new flower listing, but there may be pressure during the new flower concentration period [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Yesterday, the sugar 2601 contract closed at 5,535 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton (+0.31%). The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,880 yuan/ton, unchanged, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,835 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton [3] - Inner Mongolia's first sugar factory is expected to start production on September 8, 4 days earlier than last year, with an estimated output of 70 - 750,000 tons [3] Market Analysis - ICE raw sugar is under pressure due to production increases in Brazil and the Northern Hemisphere. Zhengzhou sugar has been weak due to abundant short - term supply from imports and concerns about syrup policy relaxation [5] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. Domestic sugar prices may bottom - consolidate due to low inventory [6] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Yesterday, the pulp 2511 contract closed at 4,996 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton (+0.52%). The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,690 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,090 yuan/ton, unchanged [6] - The imported wood pulp spot market was generally stable, with only sporadic price drops [6] Market Analysis - Overseas pulp mill production cuts have not significantly changed the supply pattern. Domestic pulp production capacity is increasing, but high port inventory maintains supply pressure. Demand is weak both overseas and domestically, with low terminal demand and low paper mill operating rates [7] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. Pulp prices are expected to continue low - level oscillations due to weak fundamentals [8]