氯碱日报：烧碱山东累库，关注下游接货节奏-20250911

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PVC fluctuates mainly with macro - sentiment. Supply is expected to increase, demand remains weak, exports are expected to decline in Q4, inventory is accumulating, and there is still room to compress chlor - alkali profits. The short - term trend is macro - led, and policy progress needs attention [3]. - Caustic soda spot prices are stable with a slight decline. Supply increases, demand from major downstream industries varies, and cost support remains. Attention should be paid to downstream replenishment rhythms and Guangxi alumina production start - up [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4,857 yuan/ton (+10), the East China basis is - 207 yuan/ton (-10), and the South China basis is - 97 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. - Spot price: East China calcium carbide method is quoted at 4,650 yuan/ton (+0), and South China calcium carbide method is quoted at 4,760 yuan/ton (+10) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 630 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2,780 yuan/ton (+50), the calcium carbide profit is - 14 yuan/ton (+50), the PVC calcium carbide method production gross profit is - 421 yuan/ton (-22), the PVC ethylene method production gross profit is - 671 yuan/ton (-43), and the PVC export profit is 14.7 dollars/ton (+1.7) [1]. - Inventory and operation rate: PVC factory inventory is 31.6 million tons (+0.4), social inventory is 53.3 million tons (+1.1), the calcium carbide method operation rate is 77.65% (+2.41%), the ethylene method operation rate is 72.59% (+3.93%), and the overall operation rate is 76.18% (+2.85%) [1]. - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 67.1 million tons (-2.5) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2,576 yuan/ton (+7), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 143 yuan/ton (-7) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 870 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda is 1,360 yuan/ton (+0) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,728 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 824.5 yuan/ton (-120.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 542.53 yuan/ton (-70.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1,418.45 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2]. - Inventory and operation rate: Liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 38.78 million tons (+0.83), flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.14 million tons (+0.00), and the caustic soda operation rate is 84.20% (+1.80%) [2]. - Downstream operation rate: The alumina operation rate is 84.38% (-1.20%), the dyeing operation rate in East China is 65.63% (+0.90%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate is 87.10% (+1.08%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - Supply: Domestic PVC plant overhauls continue to decrease, and supply is expected to increase. With new production capacity coming on - stream, supply remains abundant [3]. - Demand: Downstream product operation rates remain low, with enterprises making rigid purchases. Attention should be paid to downstream raw material replenishment willingness during the peak season. Export orders and deliveries decline, and Q4 export expectations weaken due to Indian policies [3]. - Inventory: Social inventory continues to accumulate, and the absolute inventory level is high. Futures warehouse receipts are rising, and hedging pressure suppresses prices [3]. - Profit: There is still room to compress chlor - alkali profits, and supply - demand remains weak. "Anti - involution" affects the market, and the short - term market is macro - led [3]. Caustic Soda - Supply: The operation rate of chlor - alkali enterprises increases slightly and is at a high level [3]. - Demand: The purchase price of Shandong's main downstream alumina factories is stable, and delivery volume is rising. Attention should be paid to purchase prices and pre - holiday stocking demand. Non - aluminum downstream operation rates increase, with rigid purchases [3]. - Cost: Shandong's electricity price increases slightly in September, and downstream resistance emerges after the reduction of liquid chlorine subsidies. It is expected that liquid chlorine subsidies will increase, and cost support remains [3]. - Profit: Chlor - alkali profits are at a medium level compared to the same period [3]. Strategy PVC - Single - side: Fluctuate with macro - sentiment [4]. - Inter - delivery: Recommend gradually building long positions in the positive spread when V01 - 05 is below - 300 [4]. - Inter - commodity: None [4]. Caustic Soda - Single - side: Wait and see [4]. - Inter - delivery: Go long on the SH10 - 01 spread on dips [4]. - Inter - commodity: None [4].