中辉期货黑色观点-20250911

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel Products - Rebar: Cautiously bearish [1] - Hot - Rolled Coil: Cautiously bearish [1] - Iron Ore: Cautiously bullish [1] - Coke: Cautiously bullish [1] - Coking Coal: Cautiously bullish [1] - Ferroalloys - Silicomanganese: Cautiously bearish [1] - Ferrosilicon: Cautiously bearish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel Products: Supply - demand contradictions remain, and the market is running weakly. For rebar, iron - water production has a large month - on - month decline but is expected to rebound quickly later; rebar production and apparent demand both decline slightly, and inventory continues to increase. For hot - rolled coil, production and apparent demand decline month - on - month, inventory continues to increase, and the fundamentals are relatively stable [1][4]. - Iron Ore: The supply - demand structure has improved, and ore prices are firm. Iron - water production has decreased significantly month - on - month due to the military parade, and attention should be paid to its recovery. Port inventories are accumulating, and short - term restocking demand from steel mills is not strong. The arrival and shipment of foreign ore have both decreased significantly, and the fundamentals have improved [1][8]. - Coke: Supply and demand are relatively balanced, and it will operate in a range. The first round of coke price cuts has been implemented. Currently, coking profits are okay, and production is expected to gradually recover later. Iron - water production has decreased month - on - month but is also expected to rebound [1][12]. - Coking Coal: There are not many supply - demand contradictions, and it will operate in a short - term range. Affected by the military parade before, coking coal production decreased significantly month - on - month and will gradually recover later. Mongolian coal customs clearance is at a high level, and imports are running at a high level. Iron - water production is also expected to rebound, ensuring raw material demand [1][15]. - Ferroalloys: Supply and demand are becoming looser, and prices are under pressure. For silicomanganese, weekly production has a slight decline but the absolute value is still high. The significant decline in iron - water production on the demand side puts pressure on the actual demand for alloys. For ferrosilicon, supply and demand are tending to be loose, enterprise inventories have stopped decreasing and started to increase, and warehouse receipts remain at a high level, significantly suppressing spot prices [1][19]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Steel Products - Price Information - Futures Prices: Rebar 01 is 3109 with a decline of 14; Rebar 05 is 3156 with a decline of 14; Rebar 10 is 3023 with a decline of 14. Hot - Rolled Coil 01 is 3342 with a decline of 7; Hot - Rolled Coil 05 is 3346 with a decline of 9; Hot - Rolled Coil 10 is 3377 with no change [2]. - Spot Prices: Tangshan billet is 2990 with a decline of 10; Rebar in Tangshan is 3170 with a decline of 10, in Shanghai is 3230 with a decline of 10, etc. Hot - Rolled Coil in Tianjin is 3320 with a decline of 10, in Shanghai is 3380 with a decline of 10, etc [2]. - Basis and Spreads: For example, Rebar 01: Shanghai basis is 121; RB 10 - 01 spread is - 86; the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar in Shanghai is 150 [2]. - Operation Suggestions: The current stage is to verify the demand. The real estate and infrastructure are still weak, which may drag down the medium - term performance of rebar. The overall steel supply and demand tend to be loose, with limited short - term positive factors, and there is still a risk of a medium - term decline in the weak fundamentals [5]. 3.2 Iron Ore - Price Information - Futures Prices: Iron Ore 01 is 802 with no change; Iron Ore 05 is 781 with no change; Iron Ore 09 is 848 with a decline of 3 [6]. - Spot Prices: PB powder is 799 with no change; Yangdi powder is 692 with no change; BRBF powder is 820 with a decline of 4 [6]. - Basis and Spreads: PB powder: 01 basis is 47; i 01 - 05 spread is 24; the ratio of RB01 to i01 is 3.86 with a decline of 0.30 [6]. - Operation Suggestions: Cautiously bullish [9]. 3.3 Coke - Price and Data Information - Futures Market: Coke 1 - month contract 01 basis is 1603.0 - 119; Coke 5 - month contract is 1732.5 with an increase of 7.0; Coke 9 - month contract is 1512.5 with no change [11]. - Spot Quotes: Lvliang quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke ex - factory price is 1280 with no change; Rizhao Port first - grade metallurgical coke FOB price is 1520 with no change [11]. - Weekly Data: The capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking enterprises is 73.1% with a decline of 0.2%; 247 steel mills' daily average iron - water production is 228.8 with a decline of 11.3 [11]. - Operation Suggestions: Cautiously bullish [13]. 3.4 Coking Coal - Price and Data Information - Futures Market: Coking Coal 1 - month contract is 1117.0 with a decline of 6.5; Coking Coal 5 - month contract is 1195.0 with a decline of 10.0; Coking Coal 9 - month contract is 988.5 with an increase of 33.5 [14]. - Spot Quotes: Lvliang main coking coal (A<10.5, S<1%, G>75) is 1400 with no change; Mongolian 5 clean coal self - pickup price at Wubulangkou Jinquan Industrial Park is 1130 with a decline of 46 [14]. - Weekly Data: The sample coal - washing plant's开工率 is 61.5% with a decline of 0.8%; the sample coking plant's daily average coking coal inventory is 781.0 with a decline of 38.9 [14]. - Operation Suggestions: Cautiously bullish [16]. 3.5 Ferroalloys - Price Information - Futures Prices: Silicomanganese 01 is 5854 with an increase of 16; Silicomanganese 05 is 5884 with an increase of 8; Silicomanganese 09 is 5752 with an increase of 18. Ferrosilicon 01 is [value] with an increase of 10; Ferrosilicon 05 is 5702 with an increase of 20; Ferrosilicon 09 is 5464 with an increase of 30 [18]. - Spot Prices: Silicomanganese 6517 in Inner Mongolia is 2680 with no change; Ferrosilicon 72 in Inner Mongolia is 5410 with no change [18]. - Basis and Spreads: Silicomanganese 01: Inner Mongolia basis is 126 with a decline of 16; SF 09 - 01 spread of ferrosilicon is - 124 with an increase of 20 [18]. - Operation Suggestions: For silicomanganese, there is still pressure for price increases, and it should be treated with cautious bearishness. For ferrosilicon, there is still pressure for short - term price increases, and it should also be treated with cautious bearishness [20].