Soochow Securities·2025-09-11 06:47Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for NIO-SW (09866.HK) [1][20] Core Views - The company's Q2 2025 performance met expectations, with significant cost reduction and efficiency improvements. Revenue for Q2 2025 was CNY 19.01 billion, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.0% and a year-on-year increase of 57.9% [8][9] - Vehicle sales revenue reached CNY 16.14 billion, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.9% and a year-on-year increase of 62.3% [8] - The company delivered 72,000 vehicles in Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 71.5% [9] - The report anticipates Q3 2025 vehicle deliveries to reach between 87,000 and 91,000, marking a historical high with a year-on-year increase of 40.7% to 47.1% [9][20] - New vehicle models, such as the L90 and ES8, have received strong market feedback, with the L90 achieving 10,575 deliveries in its first month [19][20] - Due to intensified industry competition, the net profit forecast for 2025-2026 has been revised down to CNY -179 billion and CNY -128 billion, respectively [20] Summary by Sections Performance Analysis - Q2 2025 revenue was CNY 19.01 billion, with a gross margin of 10.0% [8][12] - The average revenue per vehicle decreased to CNY 223,900, down 18.1% quarter-on-quarter [9] - The company reported an operating loss of CNY 4.91 billion for Q2 2025, with an adjusted net loss of CNY 4.13 billion [8][16] New Product Launches - The L90 SUV was launched on July 31, 2025, with a starting price of CNY 265,800, and achieved rapid sales [19] - The ES8 is positioned as a flagship SUV and is expected to launch in late September 2025 [19] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2023A to 2027E show a growth trajectory, with expected revenues of CNY 89.21 billion in 2025E and CNY 154.02 billion in 2027E [1] - The report anticipates continued losses, with net profit forecasts for 2025E at CNY -17.88 billion and for 2026E at CNY -12.76 billion [20]