瑞达期货工业硅产业日报-20250911

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Next week, the overall supply of industrial silicon will show an upward trend, with a significant increase in the southwest region due to the resumption of production, while the Xinjiang region remains relatively stable [2] - The total demand for industrial silicon from the three major downstream industries remains flat, and the current industry inventory is still at a high level, with inventory digestion facing certain pressure [2] - Today, industrial silicon continued to rebound, mainly driven by the increase in downstream polysilicon production, but the upward range is not large. It is expected that the short - term basis repair will have limited impact on the upward movement of futures. It is recommended to consider mid - to long - term bottom - fishing to build long positions if the price falls below 8,200 yuan later [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 8,740 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 75 yuan; the position of the main contract is 287,771 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 9,706 lots [2] - The net position of the top 20 is - 39,667 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 33,479 lots; the warehouse receipts of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange are 50,045 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 90 lots [2] - The price difference between industrial silicon in September and October is - 170 yuan, with a week - on - week decrease of 330 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 9,200 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan; the average price of 421 silicon is 9,500 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan [2] - The basis of the Si main contract is 460 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 25 yuan; the spot price of DMC is 11,020 yuan/ton, with no change [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, the average price of petroleum coke is 1,840 yuan/ton, the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, all with no change [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 366,800 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 33,600 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons [2] - The monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume is 52,919.65 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 12,197.89 tons [2] - The weekly output of silicone DMC is 44,900 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,800 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The overseas price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kg; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 6.45 US dollars/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.25 US dollars/kg [2] - The monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 24,908.89 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 861.29 tons; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 705,900 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 13.3% [2] - The monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20,187.85 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 337.93 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - The start - up in the Yili region is optimistic, the start - up in the Sichuan region has slightly decreased, mainly in Leshan, and the start - up in the Yunnan region is still mainly in Baoshan. The manufacturers in Dehong and Nujiang have a low willingness to resume production [2] - From January to July, the total operating income of national state - owned and state - holding enterprises was flat compared with the same period last year, and the total profit decreased by 3.3% year - on - year [2]