Shanxi Securities·2025-09-11 08:33Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for China Telecom (601728.SH) [1] Core Views - The company's fundamental operations remain robust, with significant growth in smart revenue [1] - In H1 2025, China Telecom achieved revenue of CNY 269.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, with service revenue at CNY 249.1 billion, up 1.2% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached CNY 23.0 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.5% [2] Summary by Sections Basic Business Performance - Mobile communication service revenue grew to CNY 106.6 billion, up 1.3% year-on-year, with a mobile user base of 433 million and an ARPU of CNY 46.0 [3] - Fixed-line and smart home service revenue reached CNY 64.1 billion, a slight increase of 0.2% year-on-year, with broadband users totaling 199 million and a broadband ARPU of CNY 48.3 [4] Digital and AI Business Growth - The digital industry revenue reached CNY 74.9 billion, up 1.5% year-on-year, with Tianyi Cloud revenue at CNY 57.3 billion and smart revenue soaring by 89.4% to CNY 6.3 billion [6] - The company launched over 80 industry-specific large models and 30 intelligent agents, indicating a strong push in the "AI+" initiative [6] Capital Expenditure and Infrastructure - Capital expenditure decreased to CNY 34.2 billion, down 28% year-on-year, with investments focused on mobile networks and digital industry [12] - The company has established a robust computing infrastructure with a total computing power of 77 EFLOPS, enhancing its capabilities in AI and cloud services [12] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts net profit for 2025-2027 at CNY 34.77 billion, CNY 36.57 billion, and CNY 38.25 billion, representing year-on-year growth rates of 5.3%, 5.2%, and 4.6% respectively [13] - The estimated EPS for the same period is projected to be CNY 0.38, CNY 0.40, and CNY 0.42, with corresponding P/E ratios of 20.0, 19.0, and 18.2 [13]