2025年8月物价点评：物价总体延续低位运行

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Report's Core View - In August, the price index was under marginal pressure, with both CPI and PPI year-on-year in the negative range. The year-on-year decline of CPI was 0.4%, and the month-on-month was flat. The year-on-year decline of PPI narrowed to 2.9%, and the month-on-month turned from decline to flat [1]. - The year-on-year pressure on CPI and flat month-on-month may be affected by the seasonal weakness of food prices and high base. In the future, food prices in September may continue to be under pressure due to high base, while service prices may continue to recover in the second half of the year [1]. - The year-on-year decline of PPI narrowed for the first time in six months. The month-on-month turn to flat was mainly affected by policy-driven supply-demand improvement and imported factors. In the future, the prices of production materials in September may continue to pick up, while the stabilization of living materials may depend on the repair of food PPI [1]. - The downward pressure on the economy may increase in the second half of the year. In August, the year-on-year growth rate of prices was lower than expected, and the manufacturing PMI continued to be below the boom-bust line, indicating growth pressure. Consumption and exports may face certain pressure in the second half of the year [1]. - The short-term bond market may be suppressed by sentiment, and the bond market is bullish in September. It is believed that the downward pressure on the economy may increase in the second half of the year, the capital side will continue to be loose, the central bank may restart Treasury bond purchases, and the self-operated allocation demand of banks will support the decline of bond market interest rates [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content CPI Situation - In August 2025, CPI year-on-year decreased by 0.4%, month-on-month was flat, both down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The year-on-year increase of core CPI continued to expand to 0.9% for the fourth consecutive month, reflecting the improvement trend of domestic demand [1]. - The year-on-year decline of CPI food prices has been negative for seven consecutive months. In August 2025, it decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 2.7 percentage points from the previous month. Food and tobacco had a drag of about -0.74 percentage points on CPI year-on-year. Non-food prices increased by 0.5% year-on-year, with the increase expanding for three consecutive months, mainly driven by industrial consumer goods and service items [1]. - Looking forward, food prices in September may continue to be under pressure due to high base. With relevant policies, service prices may continue to recover in the second half of the year [1]. PPI Situation - In August 2025, the year-on-year decline of PPI narrowed to 2.9%, the first narrowing since February this year, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, and the month-on-month turned from decline to flat, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, ending the continuous decline for eight months [1]. - From the sub-items, the year-on-year decline of production materials narrowed, up 1.1 percentage points from July to -3.2%, and the year-on-year decline of living materials slightly expanded, down 0.1 percentage points from July to -1.7% [1]. - The month-on-month turn to flat of PPI was mainly affected by policy-driven supply-demand improvement and imported factors. In the future, the prices of production materials in September may continue to pick up, while the stabilization of living materials may depend on the repair of food PPI [1]. Economic and Bond Market Situation - In August, the year-on-year growth rate of prices was lower than expected, and the manufacturing PMI continued to be below the boom-bust line, indicating growth pressure. Consumption and exports may face certain pressure in the second half of the year [1]. - The short-term bond market may be suppressed by sentiment, and the bond market is bullish in September. It is expected that the 10Y Treasury bond yield will be between 1.6% - 1.8% in the second half of the year, and will return to around 1.65% in the next six months [1].