玉米淀粉日报-20250911

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Name: Corn Starch Daily Report [2] - Date: September 11, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Liu Dayong [6] - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F03107370 [6] - Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0018389 [6] Group 2: Data Futures Disk - C2601: Closing price 2172, up 2 (0.09%), volume 112,026 (-43.81%), open interest 435,154 (3.08%) [3] - C2605: Closing price 2240, unchanged (0.00%), volume 16,051 (30.54%), open interest 81,333 (1.19%) [3] - C2509: Closing price 2302, up 17 (0.74%), volume 691 (DIV/0!), open interest 11,759 (0.68%) [3] - CS2601: Closing price 2497, down 5 (-0.20%), volume 17,752 (-24.92%), open interest 60,779 (4.53%) [3] - CS2605: Closing price 2584, down 4 (-0.15%), volume 346 (-53.18%), open interest 1,002 (0.40%) [3] - CS2509: Closing price 2502, unchanged (0.00%), volume 0 (DIV/0!), open interest 1,501 (0.00%) [3] Spot and Basis - Corn: Qinggang 2220 (unchanged), Jiajishenghua 2180 (unchanged), Zhucheng Xingmao 2420 (-6), Shouguang 2324 (-30), Jinzhou Port 2310 (unchanged), Nantong Port 2420 (unchanged), Guangdong Port 2450 (unchanged) [3] - Starch: Longfeng 2700 (unchanged), COFCO 2750 (unchanged), Cargill 2800 (unchanged), Yufeng 2990 (unchanged), Jinyumi 2850 (unchanged), Zhucheng Xingmao 2940 (unchanged), Hengren Gongmao 2810 (unchanged) [3] Spreads - Corn Inter - delivery: C01 - C05 -68 (up 2), C05 - C09 -62 (-17), C09 - C01 130 (up 15) [3] - Starch Inter - delivery: CS01 - CS05 -87 (-1), CS05 - CS09 82 (-4), CS09 - CS01 5 (up 5) [3] - Cross - variety: CS09 - C09 200 (-17), CS01 - C01 325 (-7), CS05 - C05 344 (-4) [3] Group 3: Market Judgment Corn - US corn prices have fallen, but there may be a rebound due to potential downward adjustment of US corn yield. China has imposed a 15% tariff on US corn, with a total of 26% tariff within the quota, and a 22% tariff on US sorghum. The import profit of foreign corn is relatively high, with the December Brazilian import price at 2116 yuan. The northern port closing price is stable at around 2310 yuan, and the spot price in the northeast corn - producing area is relatively strong. The supply in North China has increased, leading to a decline in the spot price, and the price difference between northeast and North China corn has narrowed. The wheat price in North China is weak, and the price difference between wheat and corn is small, so wheat continues to be a substitute. The domestic breeding demand is still weak, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises is high. The corn spot price is relatively stable in the short term. Due to recent imports and domestic corn auctions, and the upcoming large - scale listing of new - season corn, the corn spot price is expected to decline. It is estimated that by the end of September, the North China corn price may reach 2200 yuan/ton, and the price in Heilongjiang may be below 2100 yuan/ton [5][7] Starch - The number of vehicles arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has increased, and the Shandong corn spot price is stable. The starch price in Shandong is around 2750 yuan, and the northeast starch spot price is also weak. This week, the corn starch inventory has decreased to 122.6 million tons, a decrease of 3.9 million tons from last week, a monthly decrease of 6.98% and a year - on - year increase of 40.3%. The current starch price mainly depends on the corn price and downstream inventory - building. The average income from by - products in the past few years has been over 600 yuan, and today the by - product contribution in Shandong is 630 yuan (670 yuan in Heilongjiang). The by - product price is still strong, much higher than last year, and the spot price difference between corn and starch is low. The North China corn price is stable in the short term, while the northeast corn price is relatively weak. In the medium and long term, due to weak starch demand, enterprises will be in a long - term loss state. Today, the 01 starch contract has followed the corn price in a weak shock. The North China corn price still has room to fall by early October, and the corn starch spot price will also decline later. The loss of North China deep - processing plants will expand, and it is expected that the 01 starch contract on the short - term disk will continue to be in a weak shock [8] Group 4: Trading Strategies - For the US corn, there is support at 400 cents per bushel. It is recommended to mainly wait and see for the 01 corn contract. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see [10][11] Group 5: Corn Option Strategies - Spot - holding enterprises can close out their short positions in corn call options, or they can try to gradually sell at high prices in the short term and conduct rolling operations [14] Group 6: Related Attachments - The report includes six figures, namely the spot price of corn in various regions, the basis of the corn 01 contract, the 1 - 5 spread of corn, the 1 - 5 spread of corn starch, the basis of the corn starch 01 contract, and the spread of the corn starch 01 contract [16][17][21]