瑞达期货沪锡产业日报-20250911

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - Macroscopically, the finance minister emphasizes strengthening the domestic cycle, and China's August CPI, core CPI, and PPI show certain trends; the US inflation unexpectedly drops. Fundamentally, Myanmar's Wa State restarts mining permit approval but actual output is expected in Q4, Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in stages, and tin ore processing fees remain low. In the smelting sector, July's output increase is due to multiple factors, but raw material shortages are still serious in Yunnan and the waste recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure. On the demand side, downstream processing enterprises are in the peak - season recovery period with slow order recovery. Recently, tin prices fluctuate downward, domestic and LME inventories increase, and the spot premium is maintained. Technically, with a decline in positions and stable prices, the bullish sentiment is cautious, and there is support at M60. It is recommended to wait and see or go long lightly on dips [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai tin is 271,260 yuan/ton, up 830 yuan; the closing price of the October - November contract of Shanghai tin is - 220 yuan, up 110 yuan; the LME 3 - month tin price is 34,635 US dollars/ton, up 600 US dollars. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai tin is 26,606 lots, down 744 lots; the net position of the top 20 in futures of Shanghai tin is - 937 lots, down 260 lots. The LME tin total inventory is 2410 tons, up 55 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 7773 tons, up 207 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of tin are 7504 tons, up 22 tons; the LME tin cancelled warrants are 225 tons, up 100 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 271,100 yuan/ton, up 1000 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 271,390 yuan/ton, up 1350 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai tin main contract is - 330 yuan/ton, down 1110 yuan; the LME tin cash - 3 months spread is 27 US dollars/ton, down 34 US dollars [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.21 million tons, down 0.29 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 259,100 yuan/ton, up 1000 yuan; the processing fee of 40% tin concentrate by Antaike is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 263,100 yuan/ton, up 1000 yuan; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrate by Antaike is 6500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1600 tons; the import volume of refined tin is 3762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 175,850 yuan/ton, up 560 yuan. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.6014 million tons, up 0.1445 million tons; the export volume of tin - plated sheets is 0.1407 million tons, down 0.0339 million tons [3] 3.6 Industry News - The director of the National Development and Reform Commission points out measures such as accelerating employment, enterprise, market, and expectation stabilization, implementing fiscal and monetary policies, releasing domestic demand potential, promoting innovation, and ensuring people's livelihood. China's August economic data shows CPI, core CPI, and PPI trends, and the US inflation unexpectedly drops [3] 3.7 Key Points to Watch - No news today [3]