银河期货沥青日报-20250911

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - On September 11, 2025, the domestic asphalt market average price was 3793 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decline of 0.08%. The asphalt market lacks obvious drivers, with short - term supply being tight and demand being stable month - on - month. In a situation of weak supply and demand, refinery inventories are rising steadily, and social inventories are steadily decreasing. Spot prices are expected to run weakly, and crack spreads are dominated by oil price fluctuations in the short term and bearish in the medium term. The operating range of the BU2511 contract is expected to be between 3350 - 3500 yuan/ton [5][8] Group 3: Summary of Related Data Futures Prices and Positions - BU2511 (main contract) price was 3463 yuan/ton on September 11, up 13 yuan/ton or 0.38% from the previous day; BU2512 was 3413 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton or 0.41%; BU2601 was 3390 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton or 0.41%. SC2510 was 489.2 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton or 0.62%. Brent first - line was 67.09, down 0.04% [2] - The main contract position was 253,000 lots, up 8,000 lots or 3.27% from the previous day; the trading volume was 186,000 lots, up 36,000 lots or 23.94%. The number of warehouse receipts was 64,460 tons, down 400 tons or 0.62% [2] Basis and Calendar Spreads - BU12 - 01 was 23 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; BU11 - 12 was 50 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton or - 1.96%. The Shandong - main contract basis was 257 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton or - 5.17%; the East China - main contract basis was 137 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton or - 9.27%; the South China - main contract basis was 87 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton or - 28.10% [2] Industrial Chain Spot Prices - The Shandong market price was 3540 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the East China market price was 3550 yuan/ton, unchanged; the South China market price was 3500 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton or - 0.57% [2] - Shandong gasoline was 7557 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton or 0.13%; Shandong diesel was 6478 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton or 0.14%; Shandong petroleum coke was 2970 yuan/ton, unchanged. The diluted asphalt discount was - 6 yuan/ton, unchanged. The exchange - rate mid - price was 7.1034, down 0.04% [2] Spreads and Profits - The asphalt refinery profit was - 32.57 yuan/ton, up 6.29 yuan/ton or 16.18% from the previous day; the refined oil comprehensive profit was 390.01 yuan/ton, up 10.59 yuan/ton or 2.79% [2] - BU - SC crack spread was - 550.81 yuan/ton, down 9.51 yuan/ton or - 1.76%. Gasoline spot - Brent was 1002.36 yuan/ton, up 12.39 yuan/ton or 1.25%; diesel spot - Brent was 737.49 yuan/ton, up 11.51 yuan/ton or 1.58% [2] Group 4: Market Analysis Market Overview - In the Shandong market, the mainstream transaction price remained stable at 3650 - 3800 yuan/ton. Crude oil and the futures market continued to be favorable, and the demand for terminal projects increased, which was beneficial to the firmness of asphalt prices. However, most traders were executing low - price contracts, and the short - term price increase space was limited [5] - In the Yangtze River Delta market, the mainstream transaction price remained stable at 3650 - 3700 yuan/ton. Zhenhai Refining & Chemical resumed asphalt production, and the supply increased. Due to insufficient demand, the shipping price of a Sinopec refinery was expected to be lowered, and the short - term price might show a weak trend [5] - In the South China market, the mainstream transaction price fell 25 yuan/ton to 3480 - 3530 yuan/ton. Affected by typhoon and rainfall, the shipment was average, and the price of a PetroChina refinery was lowered by 50 yuan/ton. In the future, the rainfall might decrease, and the price might be stable [5][6] Market Outlook - The supply of asphalt was short - term tight, and the demand was stable month - on - month. In a situation of weak supply and demand, refinery inventories were rising steadily, and social inventories were steadily decreasing. The asphalt itself lacked obvious drivers, the spot price was expected to run weakly, and the crack spread was dominated by oil price fluctuations in the short term and bearish in the medium term. The operating range of the BU2511 contract was expected to be between 3350 - 3500 yuan/ton [8] Group 5: Related Attachments - The attachments include charts of BU main - contract closing price, main - contract position, East China asphalt market price, Shandong asphalt market price, Shandong refinery gasoline price, and Shandong refinery diesel price, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Wind, and Steel Union [11][13][16]