瑞达期货铝类产业日报-20250911

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Alumina's fundamentals may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and stable demand, suggesting light - position short - term long trades at low prices [2]. - Electrolytic aluminum's fundamentals may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and gradually recovering demand, with positive consumption expectations and a possible inventory inflection point, recommending light - position bullish trading [2]. - Cast aluminum's fundamentals may be in a stage of slightly decreasing supply and slowly recovering demand, suggesting light - position range - bound trading [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Aluminum - related Contracts: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20,915 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,945 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan. The LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quote was 2,622 dollars/ton, down 5.5 dollars [2]. - Contract Spreads and Positions: The main - second - consecutive contract spread of Shanghai Aluminum was 5 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; that of alumina was - 17 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan. The main contract positions of Shanghai Aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy were 204,582 hands, 273,311 hands, and 8,251 hands respectively, with changes of + 8142 hands, - 2825 hands, and + 272 hands [2]. - Inventories: LME aluminum inventories remained unchanged at 485,275 tons; Shanghai Aluminum's SHFE inventory was 124,078 tons, down 1518 tons; alumina's total inventory was 130,104 tons, up 10,892 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Prices: The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 20,860 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 3,005 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 20,950 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [2]. - Basis: The basis of cast aluminum alloy was 475 yuan/ton, down 235 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was - 55 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the basis of alumina was 60 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Alumina Production and Demand: Alumina production was 756.49 million tons, down 18.44 million tons; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 722.07 million tons, up 25.88 million tons. The supply - demand balance of alumina was 16.32 million tons, down 10.82 million tons [2]. - Aluminum Scrap Trade: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan and Shandong metal scrap markets increased. China's import and export quantities of aluminum scrap and chips both increased [2]. - Alumina Trade: Alumina exports were 23 million tons, up 6 million tons; imports were 12.59 million tons, up 2.47 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Aluminum Supply and Demand Balance: The WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance was 18.31 million tons, down 9.41 million tons. The import quantity of primary aluminum was 248,198.71 tons, down; the export quantity was 40,987.71 tons, up [2]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 57.60 million tons, up 55,884.22 tons; the total production capacity was 4,523.20 million tons, up 0.40 million tons. The production of electrolytic aluminum was 548.37 million tons, down 39 million tons [2]. - Aluminum Products: The production of aluminum products was 548.37 million tons, down 39 million tons; the export of unforged aluminum and aluminum products was 53.40 million tons, down 0.60 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - Aluminum Alloy Production: The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 62.32 million tons, up 0.43 million tons; the production of aluminum alloy was 153.60 million tons, down 13.30 million tons [2]. - Related Industries: The national real estate prosperity index was 93.34, down 0.25; automobile production was 251.02 million vehicles, down 29.84 million vehicles [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day and 40 - day historical volatilities of Shanghai Aluminum increased. The put - call ratio was 1.13, up 0.047, indicating a bullish sentiment in the options market, and the implied volatility decreased slightly [2] 3.7 Industry News - US August PPI inflation unexpectedly declined, providing data support for the Fed to cut interest rates [2]. - China's August CPI was flat month - on - month and down 0.4% year - on - year, while PPI's decline narrowed [2]. - The government will use proactive fiscal policies to support employment, foreign trade, and economic development [2]