瑞达期货沪镍产业日报-20250911

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts issuance, increasing the cost of nickel resource supply, and the premium of domestic trade ore remains stable. The supply of nickel ore from the Philippines has rebounded, but the domestic nickel ore port inventory has decreased, and the raw materials are in a tight situation [3]. - In July, the production rhythm of leading enterprises remained stable, the output of a few smelters increased, and new production capacity is still planned to be put into operation, driving a slight increase in the overall refined nickel output [3]. - The profit of stainless - steel plants has improved, and the plants have increased production. The production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to rise, but the demand for ternary batteries is limited. Recently, the nickel price has declined, and downstream buyers purchase on dips, with the spot premium remaining stable [3]. - Domestic inventory has increased, and the LME inventory overseas has accumulated. Technically, the position has increased while the price has adjusted, with differences in long - short trading, and the price maintains a wide - range shock within the range [3]. - It is recommended to wait and see for the time being or conduct range operations, and pay attention to the support at the 12 - level [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 120,620 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan; the price difference between the October - November contracts of Shanghai nickel is - 170 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [3]. - The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 15,170 US dollars/ton, up 65 US dollars; the position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 81,691 lots, up 79 lots [3]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 33,857 lots, down 2,264 lots; the LME nickel inventory is 223,152 tons, up 2,058 tons [3]. - The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 26,986 tons, up 547 tons; the total cancelled warrants of LME nickel is 8,550 tons, down 42 tons [3]. - The warrant quantity of Shanghai nickel is 22,111 tons, down 193 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 nickel is 121,450 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals is 121,550 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [3]. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warrant) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 28,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main NI contract is 830 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan [3]. - The LME nickel (spot/3 - month) premium is - 182.88 US dollars/ton, up 5.59 US dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 500.58 million tons, up 65.92 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,308.23 million tons, up 48.41 million tons [3]. - The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 63.77 US dollars/ton, down 2.08 US dollars; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly output of ferronickel is 21,018.74 million metal tons, and the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 2.2 million tons, down 0.02 million tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 173.79 million tons, up 3.98 million tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 57.74 million tons, down 0.94 million tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - The report by National Development and Reform Commission Director Zheng Shanjie pointed out that efforts should be made to stabilize employment, enterprises, the market, and expectations, implement more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, release domestic demand potential, promote the in - depth integration of technological innovation and industrial innovation, deepen reforms and expand opening - up, prevent and resolve risks in key areas, promote regional coordinated development and urban - rural integration, promote green and low - carbon development through dual - control of carbon emissions, and improve people's livelihood [3]. - Chinese Finance Minister Lan Fo'an emphasized putting the strengthening of the domestic cycle in a more prominent position and implementing more proactive and effective macro - policies [3]. - In August, China's CPI decreased by 0.4% year - on - year, the core CPI increased by 0.9%, and the year - on - year decline of PPI narrowed to 2.9%. The year - on - year increase of the core CPI in August has expanded for the fourth consecutive month [3]. - US inflation unexpectedly declined in August, with the PPI down 0.1% month - on - month, turning negative for the first time in four months, and the year - on - year growth rate of 2.6% was lower than expected [3].