瑞达期货生猪产业日报-20250911

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the stabilization of spot prices and positive news, the decline of live hog futures prices has slowed down, showing an adjustment trend. However, the pressure of live hog supply remains, and the demand growth is limited. Under the weak supply - demand pattern, it is expected that live hog prices will fluctuate weakly at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - The closing price of the main live hog futures contract was 13,320 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the position of the main contract was 75,953 lots, up 234 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 428 lots, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 14,916 lots, up 48 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Price - The live hog prices in Henan Zhumadian, Jilin Siping, and Guangdong Yunfu were 13,400 yuan/ton, 13,000 yuan/ton, and 14,100 yuan/ton respectively, all unchanged. The main live hog basis was 80 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The live hog inventory was 42,4470,000 heads, up 7160,000 heads; the inventory of breeding sows was 4,0420,000 heads, down 10,000 heads; CPI year - on - year was - 0.4%, unchanged; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3,030 yuan/ton; the spot price of corn was 2,365.49 yuan/ton, down 1.96 yuan; the DCE hog feed cost index was 914.43, up 3.38; the monthly output of feed was 28,273,000 tons, down 1,104,000 tons; the price of binary breeding sows was 1,625 yuan/head, unchanged; the breeding profit of purchasing piglets was - 126.24 yuan/head, up 22.17 yuan; the breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising hogs was 52.65 yuan/head, up 20.41 yuan; the monthly import volume of pork was 90,000 tons, unchanged; the average price of white - striped chickens in the main producing areas was 14.3 yuan/kg, unchanged [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The slaughter volume of designated live hog slaughtering enterprises was 3,1660,000 heads, up 1600,000 heads; the monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 450.41 billion yuan, down 2.035 billion yuan. On September 11, 2025, the daily live hog出栏量 of key breeding enterprises nationwide was 275,459 heads, down 0.79% from the previous day [2] 3.5 Industry News - On Thursday, the live hog 2511 contract closed up 0.04%. After continuous price declines, the breeding side has a sentiment of supporting prices, and the spot price has stopped falling and stabilized. However, the inventory of breeding sows corresponding to September is at the peak of the previous increasing cycle, and the number of newborn piglets six months ago has increased, so there is supply pressure. According to Mysteel data, the planned出栏量 in September for the sample increased month - on - month. It is reported by Cailian Press that a live hog symposium may be held in mid - September [2] 3.6 Demand - The temperature in the north has dropped, demand has slightly recovered, and the slaughterhouse's operating rate has continued to rise [2] 3.7 Technical Analysis - The live hog 2511 contract is undergoing a technical adjustment [2]