Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current core contradiction affecting the price trend of lithium carbonate futures lies in the interaction between supply - side disturbances and the peak - season expectations on the demand side. The news of the restart of Ningde Times' Jiaxiaowo lithium mine has caused abnormal fluctuations in futures prices, and the market shows signs of irrational sentiment. The social inventory has been decreasing for 4 consecutive weeks, and the downstream inventory is in a healthy range, indicating the resilience of terminal demand. The demand side provides key support, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 68,000 - 72,000 yuan/ton in the next month. However, if the supply - side disturbances are less than expected or the demand - side restocking weakens, the price may face downward pressure [2][4]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include potential production suspension risks of lithium mines in Jiangxi, uncertainties in supply due to green mine construction, and expected growth in downstream production. Negative factors include the filling of supply gaps as prices rise, the acceleration of overseas lithium mine production, and the risk of insufficient restocking on the demand side [4][5][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Price Interval Prediction - The strong pressure level of the lithium carbonate main contract is 76,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 40.7% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 67.2% [2]. Lithium - Ion Battery Enterprise Risk Management Strategy Suggestions Procurement Management - For cases where product prices are not correlated: When there is a plan to produce battery materials in the future and there is a concern about rising procurement costs, for the futures tool, buy corresponding futures contracts with a hedging ratio of 20% and an entry range of 67,000 - 70,000 yuan/ton; for the on - or off - exchange option tool, sell put options with a hedging ratio of 30% and an entry point of LC2511 - P - 68000 [2]. - For cases where product prices are correlated: When there is a plan to produce battery materials in the future and there is a concern about rising procurement costs, for the futures tool, sell the main futures contract according to the procurement progress with a hedging ratio of 70% based on the procurement cost; for the on - or off - exchange option tool, buy put options and sell call options with a hedging ratio of 50% based on the procurement cost. When there is a plan to produce lithium carbonate in the future and there is a concern about falling sales profits, for the futures tool, sell corresponding futures contracts according to the production plan with a hedging ratio of 80% based on the sales profit; for the on - or off - exchange option tool, buy put options and sell call options with a hedging ratio of 40% based on the sales profit [2]. Sales Management - When raw materials are highly correlated with lithium carbonate prices and finished products have a low correlation with lithium carbonate prices: When there is a plan to purchase lithium - containing raw materials to produce finished products in the future and there is a concern about falling sales profits, for the futures tool, sell the main futures contract according to the procurement progress with a hedging ratio of 80% based on the procurement cost; for the on - or off - exchange option tool, buy put options and sell call options with a hedging ratio of 60% based on the procurement cost [2]. Inventory Management - When there is a concern about inventory depreciation due to future price drops in the inventory of raw materials/lithium carbonate with a high price correlation, for the futures tool, sell the main futures contract with a hedging ratio of 60% - 80% in the range of 78,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton; for the on - or off - exchange option tool, sell call options with a hedging ratio of 40% - 60% at LC2511 - C - 79000 [2]. Futures Data - The closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract is 71,000 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 280 yuan (0.40%) and a weekly decrease of 2,420 yuan (- 3.30%); the trading volume is 426,041 lots, with a daily decrease of 325,439 lots (- 43.31%) and a weekly decrease of 286,110 lots (- 40.18%); the open interest is 323,456 lots, with a daily decrease of 17,358 lots (- 5.09%) and a weekly decrease of 30,218 lots (- 8.54%) [10]. - The closing price of the weighted lithium carbonate contract is 71,181 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 354 yuan (0.50%) and a weekly decrease of 2,218 yuan (- 3.02%); the trading volume is 564,454 lots, with a daily decrease of 498,948 lots (- 46.92%) and a weekly decrease of 382,933 lots (- 40.42%); the open interest is 778,508 lots, with a daily decrease of 17,672 lots (- 2.22%) and a weekly increase of 552 lots (0.07%) [10]. Spot Data - Lithium ore prices: The average price of lepidolite (Li2O: 2 - 2.5%) is 1,775 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan (- 2.2%) daily and 90 yuan (- 4.83%) weekly; the average price of spodumene (Li2O: 3 - 4%) is 3,050 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan (- 2.56%) daily and 250 yuan (- 7.58%) weekly; etc. [19]. - Lithium carbonate/hydroxide prices: The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 70,600 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan (- 0.84%) daily and 2,100 yuan (- 2.89%) weekly; the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 72,850 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan (- 0.82%) daily and 2,150 yuan (- 2.87%) weekly; etc. [21]. - Price differences in the lithium industry chain: The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,250 yuan/ton, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 50 yuan (- 2.17%); the difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate is 6,570 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 350 yuan (5.63%) and a weekly increase of 750 yuan (12.89%); etc. [25]. Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - Brand basis quotes for lithium carbonate: For example, the basis quote of Shengxin Lithium Energy (LI2CO3≥99.8%, LC2507) is 100 yuan, with no change [31]. - Warehouse receipt data: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 38,391 lots, an increase of 290 lots from the previous day. For example, the warehouse receipts of Zhongchu Lingang increased by 220 lots to 750 lots, and the warehouse receipts of Shanghai Guochu decreased by 13 lots to 0 lots [34]. Cost and Profit - Lithium carbonate production profit: The production profit from purchasing spodumene concentrate (Li₂O: 6%) and lepidolite concentrate (Li₂O: 2.5%) shows certain trends over time [35]. - Lithium carbonate import profit and theoretical delivery profit also show certain trends over time [35][36].
南华期货碳酸锂企业风险管理日报-20250911
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-09-11 09:28