瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20250911

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For corn, domestic imported corn auctions and wheat for feed continue to supplement the market, and spring and summer corn are also being listed, increasing market circulation. However, downstream enterprises have long - term contracts, so short - term purchasing power is weak, and corn prices are oscillating at a low level. Some new - season corn in domestic regions is listed early, and the opening purchase price is slightly higher year - on - year, which is beneficial to market sentiment. Corn futures prices rebounded from the low level but lack continuous upward momentum, and recently, bulls tend to take profits and prices have declined, so it's advisable to wait and see [2]. - For corn starch, the current northern raw - material corn is in the new - old alternation stage. Some enterprises have new overhauls due to insufficient raw - material supply, and the market is weak with enterprises in a loss state. The industry's operating rate is low. Supply pressure is weak and demand has slightly improved, reducing inventory pressure. However, industry inventory is still high, and the substitution advantages of cassava starch and wheat starch are good, squeezing the market demand for corn starch. Affected by the decline of corn and its own poor demand, corn starch prices have weakened recently and are weaker than corn [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2477 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; corn futures closing price (active contract) is 2202 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan/ton. Corn monthly spread (1 - 5) is 5 yuan/ton, and corn starch monthly spread (11 - 1) is - 11 yuan/ton [2]. - Futures open interest: 852554 lots for yellow corn (active contract), down 7872 lots; 210207 lots for corn starch (active contract), up 10807 lots. Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders are - 47397 lots for corn and - 43645 lots for corn starch [2]. - Registered warehouse receipts: 51874 lots for yellow corn, down 85 lots; 9950 lots for corn starch, up 544 lots. The CS - C spread of the main contract is 200 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton [2]. - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 417 cents/bushel, down 2.5 cents/bushel; total CBOT corn open interest (weekly) is 1454514 contracts, down 2187 contracts. Non - commercial net long positions of CBOT corn are - 52455 contracts, up 18485 contracts [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Factory - gate price of corn starch: 2365.49 yuan/ton in Changchun, down 1.96 yuan/ton; 2800 yuan/ton in Weifang, unchanged; 2730 yuan/ton in Shijiazhuang, unchanged. Average spot price of corn is 2310 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of corn at Jinzhou Port is 2310 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Imported corn: CIF price is 1925.56 yuan/ton, down 1.02 yuan/ton; international freight is 0 US dollars/ton. The basis of the corn starch main contract is 83 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton; the basis of the corn main contract is - 6.96 yuan/ton. The spread between Shandong starch and corn (weekly) is 360 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [2]. - Substitute spot prices: average spot price of wheat is 2426 yuan/ton, up 1.06 yuan/ton; the spread between cassava starch and corn starch (weekly) is 212 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton; the spread between corn starch and 30 - powder is - 94 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Forecasted sown area and production of corn: in the US, sown area is 398.93 million hectares, up 0.77 million hectares, and production is 35.89 million tons; in Brazil, sown area data is not provided, and production is 131 million tons; in Argentina, sown area data is not provided, and production is 53 million tons; in China, sown area is 295 million hectares, and production is 44.3 million tons; in Ukraine, production is 30.5 million tons [2]. - Corn inventory: 73.5 million tons in southern ports (weekly), down 3.5 million tons; 271.1 million tons in deep - processing enterprises (weekly), down 23.1 million tons; 156 million tons in northern ports (weekly), down 19 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Import and export: monthly import volume of corn is 6 million tons, down 10 million tons; monthly export volume of corn starch is 15940 tons, up 1440 tons [2]. - Corn starch inventory: total inventory of national corn starch enterprises is 122.6 million tons as of September 10, down 3.9 million tons from last week, with a weekly decline of 3.08%, a monthly decline of 6.98%, and a year - on - year increase of 40.27% [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Feed production: monthly production is 2827.3 million tons, down 110.4 million tons. Sample feed corn inventory days are 27.63 days (weekly), down 0.5 days [2]. - Corn starch processing profit: - 82 yuan/ton in Shandong, up 3 yuan/ton; - 65 yuan/ton in Hebei, down 2 yuan/ton; - 154 yuan/ton in Jilin, down 18 yuan/ton [2]. - Operating rate: 46.21% for alcohol enterprises (weekly), up 3.34%; 47.14% for starch enterprises (weekly), down 0.56% [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Historical volatility of corn: 8.69% for 20 - day (daily), up 0.15%; 6.79% for 60 - day (daily), up 0.14% [2]. - Implied volatility of corn options: 8.79% for at - the - money call options (daily), down 0.1%; 8.79% for at - the - money put options (daily), down 0.1% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Analysts expect the weekly export sales report to show that the net export sales volume of US corn from September 1 - 4, 2025, may range from 90 to 240 million tons [2]. - From September 1 - 5, Brazil's corn export volume was 130 million tons, compared with 642 million tons in September last year [2]. - As of the week ending September 7, 2025, the good - excellent rate of US corn was 68%, higher than the market expectation of 67%, but lower than 69% of the previous week and higher than 64% of the same period last year [2].