Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-11 09:26Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report predicts that domestic cotton futures prices will continue to fluctuate before a large amount of new cotton hits the market. The domestic supply of old - crop cotton is tight, and demand is marginally improving. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton's main contract closing price was 13,835 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; cotton yarn's main contract closing price was 19,870 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan [2]. - Cotton futures' top 20 net positions were - 26,540 lots, an increase of 8,105 lots; cotton yarn futures' top 20 net positions were - 105 lots, a decrease of 64 lots [2]. - The main contract's cotton position was 502,476 lots, down 2,390 lots; the main contract's cotton yarn position was 22,143 lots, down 626 lots [2]. - The cotton warehouse receipt quantity was 5,159 sheets, down 163 sheets; the cotton yarn warehouse receipt quantity was 91 sheets, an increase of 1 sheet [2]. 现货市场 - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) was 15,249 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan; the China Yarn Price Index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn was 20,745 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. - The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) was 13,319 yuan/ton, an increase of 44 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn for pure - combed 32 - count was 21,460 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan [2]. - The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding tax) was 14,176 yuan/ton, an increase of 33 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn for pure - combed 32 - count fine - combed was 22,814 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area was 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output was 6.16 million tons, an increase of 0.54 million tons [2]. - The cotton - yarn price difference was 5,496 yuan/ton, an increase of 27 yuan; the national industrial cotton inventory was 870,000 tons, an increase of 13,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of cotton was 50,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn was 110,000 tons, unchanged [2]. - The profit of imported cotton was 1,110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 82 yuan; the national commercial cotton inventory was 1.4817 million tons, a decrease of 0.7081 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days were 27.67 days, a decrease of 0.69 days; the gray fabric inventory days were 36.14 days, a decrease of 1.1 days [2]. - The monthly cloth output was 2.7 billion meters, a decrease of 0.079 billion meters; the monthly yarn output was 1.9915 million tons, a decrease of 0.0735 million tons [2]. - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 1.5161759 billion US dollars, a decrease of 10.4955 million US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 1.1604009 billion US dollars, a decrease of 44.4198 million US dollars [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call options was 11.25%, an increase of 0.16%; the implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put options was 11.28%, an increase of 0.2% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton was 8.82%, a decrease of 0.75%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton was 6.88%, an increase of 0.06% [2]. Industry News - As of September 2, 2025, the non - commercial long positions in US cotton futures were 70,472 lots, an increase of 3,012 lots from the previous week; the non - commercial short positions were 118,684 lots, an increase of 13,618 lots from the previous week; the net short positions were 48,212 lots, an increase of 10,606 lots from the previous week [2]. - At the end of August, the national commercial cotton inventory was 1.4817 million tons, a decrease of 0.7081 million tons from the previous month, a decline of 32.34% [2]. International Situation - ICE cotton futures rose to near a two - week high on Wednesday, boosted by the weakening US dollar. The ICE December cotton futures contract rose 0.21 cents, or 0.32%, to settle at 66.67 cents per pound [2]. - The USDA's report shows that the estimated cotton output in Brazil for the 2025/26 season is revised up to 18.1 million bales (about 3.94 million tons), a 1.6% increase from the initial forecast and a 6.5% increase from the 2024/25 season, mainly due to the expansion of the planting area [2]. Domestic Situation - The domestic commercial cotton inventory is at a relatively low level in recent years, and imports have decreased significantly year - on - year. Before the new cotton is listed, the supply is tightening [2]. - The market has certain expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" peak demand season. As of now, the operating load of mainstream spinning enterprises is around 60%, a significant increase from the previous period, and peak - season orders are slowly recovering [2].