国债期货日报-20250911

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 11, 2025, the spot yields of treasury bonds mostly strengthened, with the ultra - long end weakening. Treasury bond futures showed short - term strength and long - term weakness. The domestic fundamental situation indicated a stable recovery of the overall price level, and overseas, the downward revision of US non - farm employment data led to market expectations of a Fed rate cut in September, creating room for China's overall easing policy. Recently, the bond market has been weak, driven by pessimistic sentiment. It is recommended to observe the adjustment of bond futures in the short term and consider band allocation after stabilization, while also paying attention to opportunities for the expansion of term spreads due to a steeper yield curve [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - T主力收盘价107.580, up 0.07%, with a trading volume of 30,204 (an increase); TF主力收盘价105.590, up 0.14%, with a trading volume of 17,654 (an increase); TS主力收盘价102.410, up 0.06%, with a trading volume of 3,960 (an increase); TL主力收盘价114.740, down 0.11%, with a trading volume of 37,306 (an increase) [2] 3.2 Futures Spreads - TL2512 - 2509 spread was - 7.16, down - 0.44, up 0.16; T12 - TL12 spread increased by 0.11; T2512 - 2509 spread was - 1.99, down - 0.30, down 0.06; TF12 - T12 spread increased by 0.08; TF2512 - 2509 spread was - 5.17, down - 0.18, down 0.03; TS12 - T12 spread decreased by 0.03; TS2512 - 2509 spread was - 3.18, up 0.06, up 0.03; TS12 - TF12 spread decreased by - 0.11 [2] 3.3 Futures Positions - T主力持仓量 was 196,841, an increase of 5,005; T前20名多头 increased by 2,529; T前20名空头 increased by 7,964; T前20名净空仓 decreased by 5,435; TF主力持仓量 was 122,214, an increase of 2,666; TF前20名多头 increased by 1,461; TF前20名空头 increased by 2,478; TF前20名净空仓 increased by 1,017; TS主力持仓量 was 54,959, an increase of 181; TS前20名多头 decreased by 632; TS前20名空头 increased by 425; TS前20名净空仓 increased by 1,057; TL主力持仓量 was 119,162, an increase of 1,940; TL前20名多头 increased by 2,127; TL前20名空头 increased by 5,973; TL前20名净空仓 increased by 3,846 [2] 3.4 Top Two CTD (Clean Prices) - 220017.IB(6y) was 99.0955, up 0.0984; 220019.IB(6y) was up 0.0820; 230006.IB(4y) was 100.8844, up 0.0306; 240020.IB(4y) was up 0.1465; 250012.IB(1.7y) was 101.9942, up 0.0432; 220016.IB(2y) was up 0.0157; 210005.IB(17y) was 122.5704, down - 0.0023; 220008.IB(18y) was down - 0.1141 [2] 3.5 Active Treasury Bond Coupons - 1 - year coupon was 1.4300%, up 1.00bp; 3 - year coupon was up 0.75bp; 5 - year coupon was 1.7525%, up 1.75bp; 7 - year coupon was up 2.00bp; 10 - year coupon was 1.8150%, up 2.00bp [2] 3.6 Short - term Interest Rates - Overnight silver - pledged repo rate was 1.3690%, up 4.46bp; Shibor overnight was down 5.60bp; 7 - day silver - pledged repo rate was 1.4660%, up 3.05bp; Shibor 7 - day was up 1.70bp; 14 - day silver - pledged repo rate was 1.5100%, down 3.00bp; Shibor 14 - day was up 0.90bp [2] 3.7 LPR Interest Rates - 1 - year LPR was 3.5%, unchanged; 5 - year LPR was unchanged [2] 3.8 Open Market Operations - Issuance scale was 292 billion yuan, maturity scale was 212.6 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 - day reverse repos [2] 3.9 Industry News - In August, China's CPI was flat month - on - month and down 0.4% year - on - year, with core CPI up 0.9% year - on - year. PPI was flat month - on - month and down 2.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing. The Ministry of Finance stated that fiscal policies have been more proactive this year. From March 2024 to March 2025, US private non - farm employment decreased by 880,000, with various sectors seeing employment declines [2] 3.10 Key Points to Watch - At 20:15 on September 11, the European Central Bank's interest rate decision; at 20:30 on September 11, US August CPI and core CPI data [3]