不锈钢产业日报-20250911
- Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - On the raw material side, the Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts the issuance, increasing the cost of nickel resource supply. However, the nickel - iron production capacity in Indonesia is accelerating its release, and the production has rebounded significantly. Recently, the nickel - iron price has dropped significantly, weakening the support of raw material costs. On the supply side, the production profit of steel mills has improved significantly compared to before. Due to the increase in steel prices and the relatively weak increase in raw material costs, it is expected that the steel mill production in August will increase. On the demand side, as the traditional off - season for downstream consumption is coming to an end, there is an optimistic expectation for the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season. Coupled with the favorable domestic fiscal investment policies, anti - involution measures are expected to improve the supply - demand pattern. The market's purchasing willingness has recovered, and the previously accumulated orders have been released. At the same time, the willingness of holders to sell is high, the domestic market maintains a destocking trend, and the spot premium remains stable. Technically, the position has decreased and the price has adjusted, with differences in long - short trading. Attention should be paid to the MA60 support. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being, or go long with a light position on dips [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for stainless steel is 12,870 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; the spread between the 10 - 11 month contracts for stainless steel is - 75 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders for stainless steel is - 16,617 lots, down 871 lots; the position of the main contract for stainless steel is 128,344 lots, up 5,176 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity for stainless steel is 97,554 tons, down 734 tons [2] 3.2现货市场 - The price of 304/2B rolled cut - edge stainless steel in Wuxi is 13,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,600 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the SS main contract is 455 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan [2] 3.3上游情况 - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron production is 22,000 metal tons, down 200 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 38,234.02 tons, up 21,018.74 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 835,900 tons, down 205,500 tons. The SMM1 nickel spot price is 121,450 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 955 yuan/nickel point, unchanged. The monthly chromium - iron production in China is 757,800 tons, down 26,900 tons [2] 3.4产业情况 - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7379 million tons, up 39,800 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 577,400 tons, down 9,400 tons. The monthly export volume of stainless steel is 458,500 tons, down 29,500 tons [2] 3.5下游情况 - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 35.206 million square meters, up 4.84168 million square meters; the monthly output of excavators is 24,700 units, down 2,100 units. The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 19,800 units, down 1,900 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 10,000 units, unchanged [2] 3.6行业消息 - The report by National Development and Reform Commission Director Zheng Shanjie pointed out to accelerate the stabilization of employment, enterprises, the market, and expectations, and promote the implementation of relevant measures; implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy; continuously release domestic demand potential; further promote the in - depth integration of technological innovation and industrial innovation, unswervingly deepen reform and expand opening - up, continue to prevent and resolve key risks, comprehensively promote regional coordinated development and urban - rural integration, and promote green and low - carbon development through the comprehensive transformation of carbon emission dual - control, and take multiple measures to ensure and improve people's livelihood [2] - China's CPI in August decreased by 0.4% year - on - year, while the core CPI increased to 0.9%, and the year - on - year decline of PPI narrowed to 2.9%. The year - on - year increase of the core CPI in August has been expanding for the fourth consecutive month [2] - US inflation unexpectedly declined. The US PPI in August decreased by 0.1% month - on - month, turning negative for the first time in four months, and the year - on - year growth rate of 2.6% was lower than expected [2] 3.7重点关注 - There is no news today [2]