金信期货纸浆双胶纸日刊-20250911

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For double - offset paper, with weak fundamentals and low prices, it is recommended to view it as oscillating weakly. For pulp futures, a short - selling approach on rallies is suggested [6][15] - The short - side main force has increased positions in pulp, and the long - side main force has reduced positions in double - offset paper, both being bearish signals [18] Summary by Related Catalogs Double - Offset Paper Fundamental Analysis - Price: The average price of double - offset paper enterprises was weakly sorted. The tax - included average price of 70g double - offset paper was 4,785.7 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.2% [3] - Supply: The output was 195,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons or 4.9% from the previous period. The capacity utilization rate was 52.9%, down 2.7% from the previous period. Although the industry's profitability was low and there was some production switching, new installations led to an incremental supply [4] - Cost: The prices of softwood pulp and hardwood pulp were flat, providing limited cost support [5] - Demand: Dealers were cautious about stockpiling, social orders of downstream printing factories were average, and overall demand was mainly for essential needs [5] - Strategy: As some suspended production enterprises have not fully resumed production, the industry's profitability is under pressure. It is expected that the supply increase next week will be limited [6] Supply - Demand Analysis of Double - Offset Paper - Some suspended production enterprises resumed work this week, the capacity utilization rate increased month - on - month, but downstream consumption was not boosted. User purchases were mainly for essential needs, and dealers mostly followed a just - in - time inventory strategy. Enterprise inventories increased slightly, and on - site inventories continued to rebound slightly and were at a high level in recent years [8] Pulp Futures Fundamental Analysis - The spot price of silver leaf pulp in Shandong remained stable. With weak supply and demand, the industry's operating rate was low, and the support at the 5000 - point level was weakening [15]