产业矛盾累积，钢矿承压回落

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar showed a weak oscillation, with a daily decline of 0.51%. In the current situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar are weak, and industrial contradictions continue to accumulate. Steel prices are likely to face downward pressure. The relative positives are rising costs and peak - season expectations. It is expected that steel prices will continue the weak bottom - seeking trend, and attention should be paid to demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated, with a daily decline of 0.03%. Currently, the supply of hot - rolled coil has returned to a high level, while demand is strong, and the fundamentals are stable, supporting relatively strong price movements. However, the improvement in demand needs to be tracked. If demand weakens under high supply, industrial contradictions are likely to accumulate, and prices will face downward pressure again. Key attention should be paid to demand changes [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated weakly, with a daily decline of 0.81%. Currently, the demand for iron ore has good resilience, and the supply has shrunk in the short term. The fundamentals are stable, supporting the high - level and relatively strong oscillation of ore prices. However, the valuation is relatively high, and the upside space is cautiously optimistic. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - The National Development and Reform Commission aims to promote capacity governance in key industries and comprehensively rectify disorderly and irrational competition. It will implement more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, release policy effects, and optimize policies based on evaluations [6]. - From January to August this year, China's automobile production and sales exceeded 20 million vehicles for the first time. Automobile production and sales reached 21.051 million and 21.128 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.7% and 12.6%. New - energy vehicle production and sales reached 9.625 million and 9.62 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 37.3% and 36.7%. The new - energy vehicle new - car sales accounted for 45.5% of the total new - car sales. From January to August, automobile exports were 4.292 million vehicles, with a year - on - year increase of 13.7%, and new - energy vehicle exports were 1.532 million vehicles, with a year - on - year increase of 87.3% [7]. - Mexico seeks to raise the tariff rate on Asian - made cars to a maximum of 50% to protect about 320,000 jobs related to the trade flow of these products [8]. 3.2 Spot Market - For rebar, the Shanghai price was 3,190 yuan, down 10 yuan; the Tianjin price was 3,210 yuan, unchanged; and the national average price was 3,276 yuan, down 5 yuan. For hot - rolled coil, the Shanghai price was 3,380 yuan, unchanged; the Tianjin price was 3,320 yuan, unchanged; and the national average price was 3,438 yuan, unchanged. The price of Tangshan billet was 2,990 yuan, unchanged, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,080 yuan, unchanged. The volume - screw spread was 190 yuan, up 10 yuan, and the screw - scrap spread was 1,110 yuan, down 10 yuan [9]. - For iron ore, the price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 793 yuan, down 5 yuan; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 802 yuan, up 2 yuan. The Australian sea freight was 10.59 yuan, up 0.06 yuan; the Brazilian sea freight was 24.15 yuan, up 0.24 yuan. The SGX swap (current month) was 106.37, down 0.38, and the Platts index (CFR, 62%) was 107.05, down 0.60 [9]. 3.3 Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar active contract was 3,092 yuan, with a decline of 0.51%. The trading volume was 1,542,810 lots, an increase of 278,261 lots, and the open interest was 2,000,701 lots, an increase of 133,027 lots [13]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil active contract was 3,334 yuan, with a decline of 0.03%. The trading volume was 485,423 lots, an increase of 39,365 lots, and the open interest was 1,323,310 lots, an increase of 9,651 lots [13]. - The closing price of the iron ore active contract was 795.5 yuan, with a decline of 0.81%. The trading volume was 365,052 lots, an increase of 30,518 lots, and the open interest was 538,976 lots, a decrease of 5,590 lots [13]. 3.4 Related Charts The report provides multiple charts related to steel and iron ore inventories, including weekly changes in rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories, total inventories (steel mills + social inventory), national 45 - port iron ore inventories, and 247 - steel mill iron ore inventories. It also includes charts related to steel mill production, such as the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization of 247 sample steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, and the profitability of steel mills [15][20][29]. 3.5后市研判 - Rebar: The pattern of weak supply and demand remains unchanged. The weekly output of rebar decreased by 67,500 tons, continuing the high - level decline trend, but the production reduction space during the peak season is questionable. Inventory has continued to accumulate to a high level, and the supply pressure relief is limited. Demand has continued to be weak, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 40,000 tons. High - frequency transactions are at a low level. It is expected that steel prices will continue the weak bottom - seeking trend, and attention should be paid to demand performance [38]. - Hot - rolled coil: Supply has returned to a high level, with the weekly output increasing by 109,000 tons. Demand has improved, with the weekly apparent demand increasing by 208,000 tons, but the continuous decline in the output of the main downstream cold - rolled products has led to the accumulation of industrial contradictions. The improvement in demand needs to be tracked. High supply may lead to price pressure if demand weakens [39]. - Iron ore: The supply - demand pattern has changed. The terminal consumption of ore has decreased significantly due to production restrictions. The daily average pig iron output and imported ore consumption of sample steel mills have both decreased. The supply of foreign ore has returned to a high level. The demand - side positive effect is weakening, and the upside space of ore prices is cautiously optimistic. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [40].