A股大牛市：真正的慢牛

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the concept of a "true slow bull market" in the A-share market, highlighting that the current market environment is not solely supported by fundamentals, and caution is advised against blindly following past models from 2014-2015 [1][8][9] - Three core characteristics of a slow bull market are identified: minimal contribution from valuation, a structure driven by industrial fundamentals rather than broad market rallies, and the presence of long-term patient capital [1][9][10] - The macroeconomic logic behind the US slow bull market includes liquidity easing providing valuation flexibility, leading companies offering fundamental support through large-scale stock buybacks, and a capital market system ensuring long-term operational stability [1][9][10] Group 2 - Historical analysis shows that from 1980 to 2024, only 20% of stocks in the S&P 500 contributed to 80% of the returns, indicating a significant internal differentiation in long-term investments [2][10] - The annualized return for US equity investments from 1980 to present is estimated to be between 8% and 10% (excluding dividend reinvestment), with the Nasdaq at around 12% (including dividends) [2][10] - The report breaks down the sources of returns, indicating that from 1980 to 2024, earnings growth contributed approximately 6.5% annualized return, accounting for about 65% of total returns, while valuation changes had a minimal impact [2][10] Group 3 - The report suggests that the current A-share market is entering a "systematic slow bull" phase, supported by the establishment of market stabilization funds and the influx of long-term capital from various sources [11][12] - It highlights the importance of a structural shift in the market ecology, where long-term capital gains pricing power, and the concept of "residents' savings moving" is not merely a transfer from bank accounts to securities accounts but involves a more complex mechanism [11][12] - The report categorizes historical A-share bull markets into three types: slow bulls driven by industrial fundamentals, fast bulls based on broad market rallies, and rare "crazy bulls" driven by excessive liquidity [13][14] Group 4 - The report outlines that the A-share market's true slow bull is supported by policy measures aimed at deepening capital market reforms, enhancing market ecology, and increasing the attractiveness of the stock market for residents' savings [24][25] - It notes that since 2024, reforms have followed a path of "strong regulation - expanded openness - attracting long-term capital - promoting innovation - reducing costs," which collectively aim to stabilize the market [24][25] - The report also discusses the shift in residents' savings, indicating that excess savings are gradually being redirected into the stock market, particularly as real estate investment declines [31][32]