供应压力叠加需求转弱，原油上行阻力加大

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given text. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term crude oil prices may maintain a high - level oscillatory pattern within a range, but the upward resistance is increasing. Geopolitical disturbances provide bottom support for oil prices, but the seasonal weakening of the demand side may cause the market to enter an oscillatory consolidation phase [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - On September 10, the price of the SC crude oil main contract rose slightly to 486.2 yuan/barrel (+0.7%), with an intraday fluctuation range of 481.0 - 490.5 yuan/barrel. WTI and Brent crude oil futures prices remained flat at 62.77 dollars/barrel and 66.53 dollars/barrel respectively. The spreads between SC and Brent, WTI widened to 1.74 dollars/barrel (+41.46%) and 5.5 dollars/barrel (+10.22%) respectively, and the SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread dropped significantly to - 0.3 yuan/barrel (previous value: 4.0 yuan/barrel) [2]. 3.2 Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes in the Industrial Chain Supply Side - Russia will increase its western port oil exports in September by 11% to 210 million barrels per day due to a refinery attack. The US White House plans to require large refineries to share the biofuel blending exemption quota of small refineries, which may weaken refinery's crude oil import demand if the policy is implemented. The OPEC+ online meeting evaluated market trends, but no specific production adjustment signals from oil - producing countries were seen [3]. Demand Side - US EIA data shows that on the week of September 5, refinery equipment utilization rose to 94.9% (expected 93.7%), but crude oil implied demand declined to 1920.3 million barrels per day (previous value: 1982 million barrels per day). Gasoline and distillate implied demand also decreased to 950.17 million barrels per day and 477.24 million barrels per day respectively. High refinery operating rates and weak terminal demand may indicate an increased risk of refined oil inventory accumulation [3]. Inventory Side - The total inventory of US crude oil and refined oil reached the largest increase since 2023. Commercial crude oil inventory increased by 393.9 million barrels (expected a decrease of 104 million barrels), refined oil inventory increased by 471.5 million barrels (expected an increase of 3.5 million barrels), and gasoline inventory increased by 145.8 million barrels (expected a decrease of 24.3 million barrels). China's crude oil futures warrants remained at a high level of 572.1 million barrels [4]. 3.3 Price Trend Judgment - Short - term crude oil prices may maintain a high - level oscillatory pattern within a range, but the upward resistance is increasing. Supply - side contradictions are prominent, demand resilience is insufficient, and structural contradictions are emerging. Geopolitical disturbances provide bottom support for oil prices, but the seasonal weakening of the demand side may cause the market to enter an oscillatory consolidation phase [5]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring Crude Oil - Futures prices: SC rose by 0.7% to 486.2 yuan/barrel, WTI rose by 0.65% to 63.18 dollars/barrel, and Brent rose by 1.61% to 67.60 dollars/barrel. - Spot prices: OPEC's basket price remained unchanged, while other spot prices showed various changes. - Spreads: SC - Brent spread decreased by 45.53%, SC - WTI spread increased by 2.00%, and Brent - WTI spread increased by 17.55%. - Other assets: The US dollar index, S&P 500, DAX index, and RMB exchange rate also had corresponding changes [7]. Fuel Oil - Futures prices: FU rose by 0.72% to 2786 yuan/ton, LU decreased by 0.06% to 3383 yuan/ton, and NYMEX fuel oil rose by 0.5%. - Spot prices: Most spot prices had slight changes, and some remained unchanged. - Paper - cargo prices: Some paper - cargo prices were not available. - Spreads: The Singapore high - low sulfur spread was not available, and the Chinese high - low sulfur spread decreased by 3.55% [8]. 3.5 Industrial Dynamics and Interpretations Supply - On September 10, Russia increased its September western port oil exports by 11% to 210 million barrels per day due to a refinery drone attack. On September 7, eight countries held an online meeting to assess the global market situation and future development trends [9]. Demand - The US Energy Secretary expects strong global economic recovery and a significant increase in oil demand in the next few years. However, US EIA data shows a decline in the implied demand for distillate fuel oil, gasoline, and crude oil [10]. Inventory - On September 10, the warehouse futures warrants of low - sulfur fuel oil, medium - sulfur crude oil, and fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange remained unchanged, while the warehouse warrants of petroleum asphalt decreased by 300 tons, and the warehouse warrants of pulp increased by 38 tons [11]. Market Information - As of 2:30 closing, the main contracts of Shanghai gold, Shanghai silver, and SC crude oil had corresponding changes. The Trump administration appealed the court's ruling to block the removal of Fed Governor Cook. The US White House is reviewing a new rule that requires large refineries to bear the biofuel blending exemption quota of small refineries [12]. 3.6 Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent first - line contracts, US crude oil weekly production, US and Canadian oil rig numbers, US refinery weekly operating rates, etc., with data sources from WIND, EIA, PAJ, iFinD, etc. [13][15][20]