冠通研究：弱势震荡

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The current urea futures price is at a low level and remains weak due to high market inventories and low downstream sentiment, but there is an oversold situation, and the market is bottoming out, with a technical rebound expected later [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The urea market opened lower and moved higher today, with pressure during the session. Market trading volume was low, downstream buyers purchased small quantities at low prices, and upstream factory quotes mostly declined. The ex - factory price range of small - granular urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was 1600 - 1660 yuan/ton, and the transaction center continued to decline slightly [1][6]. - On the supply side, the daily output was about 180,000 tons. Recently, there were both restarts and overhauls. Jiujiang Xinlianxin's second - phase products are expected to be produced on the 15th. Inventories are high, and market supplies are abundant [1]. - On the demand side, due to the "buy on rising, not on falling" mentality of downstream markets, there were sporadic low - price purchases. After the military parade, the operating load of compound fertilizer factories rebounded, with an operating rate of 37.82% this week, a 4.74 - percentage - point increase from last week. Although the operating rate rebounded, the finished - product inventories in factories continued to decline, and the finished fertilizers continued to be transferred to the end - users. However, the inventories in compound fertilizer factories and urea factories are both at high levels in recent years, and most of the downstream stocking has been completed, so the subsequent demand boost is limited [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The main urea 2601 contract opened at 1669 yuan/ton, opened lower and moved higher, and was under pressure during the session, finally closing at 1671 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.48%. The trading volume was 292,643 lots (+9,294 lots). Among the top 20 main positions of the main contract, long positions increased by 3,284 lots, and short positions increased by 6,331 lots. For example, Zhongtai Futures had a net long position of - 577 lots, Huishang Futures had a net long position of - 3,003 lots, Yide Futures had a net short position of - 1,330 lots, and CITIC Futures had a net short position of +701 lots [2]. - Spot: The market trading volume was low, downstream buyers purchased small quantities at low prices, and upstream factory quotes mostly declined. The ex - factory price range of small - granular urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was 1600 - 1660 yuan/ton, and the transaction center continued to decline slightly [6]. - Warehouse Receipts: On September 11, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 8,897, unchanged from the previous trading day [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Basis: Today, the mainstream spot market quotes declined, and the futures closing price also declined. Based on the Henan region, the basis weakened compared to the previous trading day, and the basis of the January contract was - 11 yuan/ton (- 12 yuan/ton) [10]. - Supply Data: According to Feiyitong data, on September 11, 2025, the national daily urea output was 186,400 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from yesterday, and the operating rate was 78.76% [11]. - Downstream Data: From September 5th to September 11th, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 37.82%, a 4.74 - percentage - point increase from last week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 55.38%, a 3.6 - percentage - point decrease from last week [15].