纯苯、苯乙烯日报：油价托底有限，纯苯苯乙烯偏弱震荡-20250911

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Pure benzene prices are expected to continue their weak and volatile trend in the short term, with limited upside potential due to unresolved supply - demand contradictions, despite short - term cost support from crude oil. In the medium to long term, the trend depends on crude oil movements and import volume realization [2]. - Styrene prices may experience short - term rebounds but face significant pressure overall. With increasing supply, weak demand, high inventories, and potential weakening of cost support, styrene is likely to trade in a range, and there is a risk of downward pressure from inventory liquidation [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Daily Market Summary 3.1.1. Fundamentals - On September 10, the styrene main contract closed up 0.04% at 7065 yuan/ton, with a basis of 45 (+12 yuan/ton); the pure benzene main contract closed up 0.22% at 6019 yuan/ton [2]. - On September 10, Brent crude oil closed at $62.6 per barrel (+$0.4), and WTI crude oil closed at $66.4 per barrel (+$0.4). The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5910 yuan/ton (+0 yuan/ton) [2]. - Styrene inventory was 19.7 million tons (+1.8 million tons), a 9.8% increase from the previous period, showing a large inventory build - up. Pure benzene port inventory was 14.9 million tons (+1.1 million tons), an 8.0% increase [2]. - In September, styrene plants will undergo maintenance, and supply is expected to decrease. Currently, the weekly styrene output is 37.6 million tons (+0.8 million tons), and the factory capacity utilization rate is 79.7% (+1.7%) [2]. - The downstream 3S开工率 (capacity utilization rates) varied. EPS capacity utilization was 52.5% (-5.8%), ABS was 69.0% (-1.8%), and PS was 61.0% (+1.1%) [2]. 3.1.2. Views - Pure benzene: In the short term, it will maintain a weak and volatile trend. Although there is short - term cost support from crude oil, demand is weak, and supply pressure in the future, especially from imports in October, cannot be ignored. In the medium to long term, it depends on crude oil trends and import volume realization [2]. - Styrene: Short - term price rebounds are limited. Supply is expected to increase, demand is weak, and cost support may weaken. It will mainly trade in a range, and there is a risk of downward pressure from inventory liquidation [3]. 3.2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring 3.2.1. Styrene and Pure Benzene Prices - On September 10, the styrene futures main contract increased 0.04% to 7065 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged at 7394 yuan/ton. The basis increased 36.36% to 45 yuan/ton [5]. - The pure benzene futures main contract increased 0.22% to 6019 yuan/ton, and the East China spot price remained at 5910 yuan/ton. Other international prices also remained unchanged [5]. - The pure benzene internal - CFR spread decreased 1.29% to -372.0 yuan/ton, and the East China - Shandong spread remained unchanged at -40.0 yuan/ton [5]. - Brent crude oil increased 0.59% to $62.6 per barrel, WTI crude oil increased 0.56% to $66.4 per barrel, and naphtha remained at 7694 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2.2. Styrene and Pure Benzene Output and Inventory - From August 29 to September 5, Chinese styrene output increased 2.14% to 37.6 million tons, and pure benzene output increased 0.31% to 45.3 million tons [6]. - During the same period, styrene port inventory in Jiangsu increased 9.78% to 19.7 million tons, and domestic factory inventory increased 1.67% to 21.5 million tons. Pure benzene port inventory nationwide increased 7.97% to 14.9 million tons [6]. 3.2.3. Capacity Utilization Rates - From August 29 to September 5, the capacity utilization rate of styrene increased 1.67% to 79.7%, that of caprolactam increased 1.03% to 90.4%, that of phenol decreased 0.151% to 75.2%, and that of aniline increased 0.41% to 68.0% [7]. - Among styrene downstream products, EPS capacity utilization decreased 5.82% to 52.5%, ABS decreased 1.80% to 69.0%, and PS increased 1.10% to 61.0% [7]. 3.3. Industry News - The US imposed high tariffs on some Asian (especially South Korean) chemical products, leading to global petrochemical industry structure adjustments. South Korea reduced ethylene cracking capacity, and some European factories closed due to high energy costs [8]. - In the first half of 2025, China's refining and chemical industry's overall losses continued to intensify, with the total loss amount increasing about 8.3% compared to the same period last year. The refining and chemical sector alone lost more than 9 billion yuan, highlighting intense competition and profit compression [8]. - With the accelerated implementation of private refining and chemical integration projects, China's pure benzene production capacity has formed a pattern centered on East China, with coordinated development in South and Northeast China [8].