Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-09-11 11:13Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the defense and military industry for the first half of 2025 [3]. Core Viewpoints - The defense industry is experiencing a recovery in overall performance, with revenue and profit showing positive year-on-year growth [2][5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on the next-generation equipment and the rapid development of unmanned and counter-unmanned weaponry starting in 2025 [4][5]. - The industry is expected to benefit from increased global military trade and a favorable domestic demand environment, leading to a sustained growth trajectory [6]. Summary by Sections 1. Overall Industry Conditions - The military industry shows a recovery in its economic climate, with revenue and profit increasing year-on-year [18]. - In the first half of 2025, the military industry achieved revenue of 304.9 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.39% increase year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 5.03% to 20.9 billion yuan [23][27]. 2. Revenue and Profit - Revenue performance varies across different segments, with the aviation sector contributing the most to both revenue and net profit in the first half of 2025, accounting for 45% and 54% respectively [44][49]. - The maritime equipment sector showed significant growth, with a revenue increase of 132.0% year-on-year [50]. 3. Profitability Indicators - The overall profitability of the military industry has faced short-term pressure, with gross margin decreasing from 21.60% to 19.27% and net margin from 8.78% to 6.85% from the first half of 2021 to the first half of 2025 [28][31]. - The report indicates that profitability is expected to improve as product prices stabilize and economies of scale are realized [28]. 4. Operational Indicators - Operational indicators have shown stable growth, with inventory increasing by 13.43% year-on-year to 349.3 billion yuan, and contract liabilities rising by 21.48% to 224 billion yuan [32][36]. - The report highlights that the growth in operational metrics reflects a robust demand from downstream sectors, ensuring a positive outlook for future performance [32]. 5. Key Companies to Watch - The report identifies several key companies to focus on, including AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation, AVIC Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group, and others in both high-end and new-type combat capabilities [4][5].