有色金属日报-20250911

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆ [1] - Alumina: ☆☆☆ [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★☆★ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★☆☆ [1] - Polysilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals, including price trends, supply - demand relationships, and influencing factors such as inventory changes and macro - economic data [1][2][3] - Different metals are expected to have different price trends in the short - term, including oscillations, testing resistance levels, and waiting for clear directions [1][2][3] Summary by Metals Copper - Thursday, Shanghai copper oscillated above 80,000 and closed with a positive line. The spot copper price was 80,175 yuan, the Shanghai copper premium widened to 85 yuan, and the refined waste price difference rose to 1,820 yuan. The Steel Union's inventory increased by 900 tons to 149,000 tons [1] - The market is concerned about domestic consumption and the impact of price increases on economic indicators. It is expected to oscillate between 79,500 - 80,500 yuan this week [1] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum oscillated strongly. The downstream start - up seasonally recovered, and the weekly output of aluminum rods increased. The aluminum ingot inventory is likely to be low this year. The aluminum ingot social inventory decreased by 6,000 tons compared to Monday [2] - Shanghai aluminum is expected to oscillate in the short - term and test the resistance at 21,000 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy follows Shanghai aluminum. The scrap aluminum supply is tight, and the spot - Shanghai aluminum cross - variety price difference may narrow further [2] - The operating capacity of alumina exceeds 96 million tons, at a historical high. The industry inventory is rising, supply exceeds demand, and spot prices are falling. The disk support is around 2,830 yuan [2] Zinc - The decline in US PPI data strengthens the Fed's September interest - rate cut expectation. The low LME zinc inventory and the decline in domestic import ore TC support the price. The CZSPT's guidance for the average import zinc concentrate TC is 120 - 140 dollars/ton [3] - The short - term Shanghai zinc is supported at 22,000 yuan/ton. The supply - demand situation is "supply increases, demand is weak", and it is expected to oscillate narrowly above 22,000 yuan [3] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel oscillated with dull trading. The Jinchuan premium was 2,150 yuan, the imported nickel premium was 300 yuan, and the electrowinning nickel premium was 50 yuan. The high - nickel iron price rebounded slightly [6] - The pure nickel inventory increased by 500 tons to 40,000 tons, the nickel iron inventory decreased by 4,000 tons to 29,200 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 919,000 tons. Technically, it is expected to oscillate at a low level [6] Tin - Shanghai tin oscillated in a narrow positive line. The spot tin price was 271,100 yuan, with a premium of 850 yuan over the delivery month. Technically, LME tin stopped falling at 34,000 dollars, and the LME position was relatively concentrated [7] - This month's domestic tin ingot production is low, supporting the price. The market is cautious about domestic tin consumption. A small number of low - position long positions can be held based on the MA60 daily line [7] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium price oscillated at a low level with active trading. The overall market inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 140,000 tons, the smelter inventory decreased by 3,900 tons to 39,000 tons, the downstream inventory increased by 2,400 tons to 55,000 tons, and the trader inventory increased by 2,000 tons to 45,000 tons [8] - The Australian ore price was 850 dollars. Technically, the lithium price oscillates and awaits a clear direction [8] Industrial Silicon - The main industrial silicon contract closed higher above 8,700 yuan/ton after reducing positions. The expected elimination of high - power - consumption and low - efficiency production capacity needs to be observed [9] - In September, the supply is expected to increase by 5%, the production of downstream polysilicon and silicone may decline, and the inventory change shows that the downstream demand reduction is limited. It is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern in the short - term [9] Polysilicon - The main polysilicon contract closed slightly higher at 53,700 yuan/ton after reducing positions. The trading heat decreased. The market is in a re - balancing stage dominated by capital games [10] - The spot polysilicon price was stable, the battery and component prices increased, but the actual component delivery price needs to be verified. There is a lack of incremental policy guidance. The short - term market faces significant upward pressure and will maintain an oscillating pattern [10]