航运衍生品数据日报-20250911

Report Overview - Report Title: Shipping Derivatives Data Daily Report [4] - Date: September 11, 2025 [5] - Researcher: Lu Zhaoyi from the Energy and Chemical Research Center of Guomao Futures Research Institute [5] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall trend of the shipping market is complex, with different trends in different routes and contracts. The EC market shows a volatile trend, and the spot freight rates have not stopped falling. It is recommended to short at high levels in October and conduct a rolling 10 - 12 reverse spread [8][9][10] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Shipping Freight Index - Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI): The current value is 1444, a decrease of 0.04% from the previous value of 1445 [5] - China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI): The current value is 1149, a decrease of 0.62% from the previous value of 1156 [5] - SCFI - US West: The current value is 2189, an increase of 13.83% from the previous value of 1923 [5] - SCFIS - US West: The current value is 980, a decrease of 3.26% from the previous value of 1013 [5] - SCFI - US East: The current value is 3073, an increase of 7.22% from the previous value of 2866 [5] - SCFI - Northwest Europe: The current value is 1315, a decrease of 11.21% from the previous value of 1481 [5] - SCFIS - Northwest Europe: The current value is 1566, a decrease of 11.68% from the previous value of 1773 [5] - SCFI - Mediterranean: The current value is 1971, a decrease of 8.11% from the previous value of 2145 [5] Shipping Derivative Contracts - Contract Prices: For contracts such as EC2506, EC2608, etc., the price changes range from -0.85% to 0.66% [5] - Contract Positions: For positions such as EC2606, EC2608, etc., the changes range from 17 to 729 [5] - Monthly Spreads: The current values of 10 - 12, 12 - 2, and 12 - 4 monthly spreads are -406.6, 150.0, and 428.0 respectively, with changes of 7.6, -5.5, and 1.8 [5] Market News - Trade Focus Shift: Tariffs are accelerating the shift of China's trade focus, with Southeast Asia and Africa becoming the main growth points. From January to July 2025, the direct - call voyages from China to Vietnam increased by 22% year - on - year, and the monthly number exceeded 300 since March [6] - Trade Negotiation Strategy: Beijing has adopted a new stance in Sino - US trade negotiations, maintaining dialogue but making few concessions, resulting in a subtle "easing" but no substantial trade agreement in the short term [6] - Trans - Pacific Demand: The suspension of services by Premier Alliance indicates a decline in trans - Pacific demand, and the number of empty voyages on the US East Coast increased in the first week of September [6] - India - Europe Route: The freight rates on the India - Europe route have been lowered due to the normalization of capacity and the lack of obvious peak - season demand. Freight forwarders expect further declines in September, with rates per TEU possibly dropping to $1,100 - $1,200 [6] - Tariff Ruling: The Federal Circuit Court of Appeals (CAFC) ruled that Trump exceeded his authority in imposing "fentanyl tariffs" and "reciprocal tariffs" under the IEEPA, but the ruling is suspended until October 14, 2025. The government has appealed to the Supreme Court [6][7] Container Freight Prices - GBMINI: The overall average of the alliance is 1800. Maersk's wk38 opening price is 1700; HPL - QQ is 1900 in September, and HPL - SPOT is 1550 [9] - O1: The overall average of the alliance is 1950; CMA is 2000, and OOCL is 1900 [9] - PA: The overall average of the alliance is 1800. ONE is 2100, and HMM is 1700 - 1900 [9] - MSC: The reported price in September is 2050 [9] - Logic: Maersk's wk39 opening price is 1550, a decrease of 150 from the previous week. OCC1 has dropped to 1600, and there may be further price drops in September. As market optimism fades and attention refocuses on spot quotes, spot freight rates have not stopped falling. Pre - holiday stockpiling before October 1st may lead to price competition in the second half of September, and the transfer of some US - bound ships to European routes increases supply and further pressures freight rates [9] Strategy - Short at high levels in October and conduct a rolling 10 - 12 reverse spread [10]