黑色金属日报-20250911

Report Investment Ratings - Thread: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Hot-rolled steel: ☆☆☆, suggesting that the short-term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, with poor operability on the current market, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆, similar to hot-rolled steel, short-term trend is balanced and operability is poor [1] - Coke: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but limited operability on the market [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆, also bullish with limited market operability [1] - Silicon iron: ☆☆☆, short-term trend balanced and hard to operate [1] Core Views - The steel market is facing potential negative feedback pressure due to weak downstream demand, with the steel plate expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [2] - Iron ore is expected to oscillate at a high level, supported by high iron water demand and potential policy benefits [3] - Coke and coking coal prices are affected by market sentiment and policy expectations, with prices having large volatility [4][6] - Silicon manganese and silicon iron prices are also influenced by policies, and their supply and demand are in a dynamic balance [7][8] Summary by Category Steel - Thread table demand and production continue to decline, inventory accumulates, while hot-rolled demand recovers, production increases, and inventory slightly drops [2] - The overall domestic demand for steel is weak, with real estate investment falling sharply and infrastructure and manufacturing growth slowing down, but steel exports remain high [2] - The steel plate has insufficient rebound momentum and is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with cost support at the bottom [2] Iron Ore - Global iron ore shipments decline significantly, domestic arrivals decrease slightly, and port inventories stabilize and rebound [3] - Terminal demand rises slightly, and there is a strong expectation of iron water production recovery this week, along with pre-holiday restocking demand from steel mills [3] - Iron ore is expected to oscillate at a high level due to policy benefits and market speculation [3] Coke - The second round of coke price cuts is in progress, and the coking production decreases slightly [4] - Coke inventory rises, and traders' purchasing willingness declines [4] - Coke prices are expected to oscillate strongly due to market sentiment and policy expectations [4] Coking Coal - Coking coal production increases due to the end of the military parade, and spot auction transactions weaken [6] - Coking coal inventory decreases overall, with production-side inventory slightly increasing [6] - Coking coal prices are affected by market sentiment and policy expectations, with large volatility [6] Silicon Manganese - The price of silicon manganese weakens, and attention is paid to the tender price of a large northern steel mill [7] - The short-term decline in iron water production has little impact, and silicon manganese production continues to increase [7] - Manganese ore prices are expected to rise, and long-term manganese ore inventory is likely to accumulate [7] Silicon Iron - The price of silicon iron weakens, and attention is also paid to the tender price of a large northern steel mill [8] - The short-term decline in iron water production has little impact, and silicon iron supply recovers significantly [8] - Silicon iron inventory decreases slightly, and the market pays attention to policy continuity [8]