农产品日报-20250911

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Buy Recommendations: Soybean (★★★), Soybean Meal (★★★), Palm Oil (★★★), Egg (★★★), Corn (★★★), Live Pig (★★★) [1] - Neutral Recommendations: Rapeseed Meal (★☆☆), Rapeseed Oil (★☆☆) [1] Core Views - The prices of agricultural products show different trends, with some in a state of supply - demand imbalance and others affected by policies, weather, and trade negotiations. Different trading strategies are recommended for different products [2][3][4] Summary by Category Soybean - The domestic soybean futures main contract rebounded from a low. The market is concerned about the acquisition of new - season soybeans. The auction of soybeans by CGS will continue this Friday, and the reserve price is expected to be lowered. The short - term supply exceeds demand, and the harvest is expected to be good this year [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - Soybean futures are in a range - bound pattern, and domestic soybean meal is stable with a weak bias. The overall supply in the fourth quarter is okay, but there may be a shortage in the first quarter of next year if Sino - US trade is not resolved. The short - term market may continue to fluctuate, and a low - buying strategy is recommended. The USDA will release a supply - demand report on September 13, and the market expects a reduction in soybean yield [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The prices of palm oil and soybean oil rebounded after a short - term decline. The domestic situation is weak, but in the medium - term, palm oil is in a seasonal production - reduction cycle. In the long - term, bio - diesel policies and palm oil tree - age issues are expected to support prices, and a low - buying strategy can be considered [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Domestic rapeseed futures rose today, and the external market stabilized. The import of oilseeds is expected to be tight in China, and North American oilseed prices are under pressure. The price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is relatively high, and the demand for rapeseed products is lackluster. The futures prices may rise slightly in the short - term [6] Corn - Corn futures were narrowly fluctuating and stabilizing. The supply in Shandong is loose, while the northeast corn is strong. The auction of imported corn by CGS will continue on September 12. Corn prices may fluctuate strongly before the new grain is harvested and then weaken [7] Live Pig - Live pig futures were weakly fluctuating, and the spot price stopped falling. There is a large supply pressure in the second half of the year, and the transfer policy is tightening. The market is waiting for the results of the production - capacity regulation symposium [8] Egg - Egg futures were fluctuating with a slight reduction in positions, and the spot price rose. The industry has a high inventory problem, and the new - production pressure is expected to decrease by the end of the year. A long - position strategy for far - month contracts next year can be considered [9]