海外市场点评：8月CPI：美联储降息的后手棋

Group 1: Economic Indicators - August CPI is expected to rise to 2.9%, driven by energy and food prices[3] - Non-farm data indicates significant threats to economic growth, leading to market expectations of three rate cuts this year[2] - The market is pricing in a potential 50 basis point cut in September, but this may be overly optimistic given the current economic indicators[2] Group 2: Inflation and Price Trends - Gasoline retail prices in August saw a narrowing decline of -6.3%, while food prices are expected to rise, impacting CPI readings[3] - Core goods are expected to remain at high levels, but with moderate growth due to tax rate adjustments and inventory strategies[3] - New vehicle prices surged by 2.6% in August, the largest increase in two years, driven by new models and tax incentives[3] Group 3: Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is likely to implement two rate cuts totaling 50 basis points this year, maintaining flexibility for future adjustments[2] - Risks of inflation rising in Q4 remain significant, influenced by inventory consumption and economic stimulus from rate cuts[2] - The Fed may manage expectations based on the September dot plot and economic forecasts to avoid being caught off guard by data reversals[2]