8月金融数据预测：社融增速如期调整

Financial Data Forecast - In August, the expected new social financing (社融新增) is approximately 1.98 trillion RMB, with a growth rate of 8.7%[7] - The forecast for new credit (信贷新增) in August is around 350 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 6.7%[4] - M2 growth is projected at 8.6% year-on-year, with an estimated increase of 12,985 billion RMB in total M2[10] Loan and Financing Insights - Expected new household loans are around -100 billion RMB, significantly lower than the previous year's 190 billion RMB[4] - Corporate loans are anticipated to be approximately 6,500 billion RMB, with a notable decline from the previous year's average of 3,000 billion RMB[4] - The total expected new loans from non-bank financial institutions is about 3,500 billion RMB, down from an average of 12,000 billion RMB over the past three years[10] Government Debt and Financing - Government net financing is estimated at 13,290 billion RMB for 2025, with a breakdown of 8,489 billion RMB from national bonds and 4,801 billion RMB from local bonds[8] - In August, the net financing from government bonds is projected to be around 13,000 billion RMB, compared to 18,000 billion RMB in the same month last year[10] Market Trends - The real estate market remains weak, with a decline in average daily transaction area for new homes in 30 cities by 0.1% month-on-month[4] - The auto market shows improvement, with a 22% year-on-year increase in wholesale sales of passenger cars[4]